Forecast of money flowing into gold and silver in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions

Thanh Hà |

Gold and silver prices are forecast to be blown up by geopolitical tensions right from the beginning of the year.

US President Donald Trump threatened to take strong action against Iran, shortly after the US arrested the Venezuelan President. The US administration is also conducting a criminal investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and is pursuing tough measures that could directly affect the profits of banks and institutional investors.

Silver prices increased by more than 6% in the session on January 14, exceeding the 90 USD/ounce mark and have increased by about 29% since the beginning of the year. The increase in silver prices at the beginning of 2026 is particularly noteworthy if placed in the context of 2025, silver prices have increased by 141%, the strongest increase since 1979.

World gold price at 11:32 AM on January 15, Vietnam time, traded at 4,593.89 USD/ounce, up 2.20 USD, equivalent to an increase of 0.05%.

In 2025, gold increased by about 65%, marking the strongest year of price increase since 1979.

Not only gold and silver, many other metals such as tin, copper, aluminum, lithium and zinc also simultaneously increased in price in 2026.

Gold has long been considered a safe haven against inflation, increasing budget deficits, geopolitical tensions and economic risks. When insecurity spreads, investors tend to hoard tangible assets such as gold to preserve value.

Gold prices surged sharply after the US attack on Venezuela, as well as after President Donald Trump's statements aimed at Iran, amid widespread protests in this country.

The gold market is boosted when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he is subject to a criminal investigation by US officials. This information raises concerns that the Fed may lose its political independence.

When the Fed is under a lot of political pressure, the stock market may benefit in the short term by lowering interest rates, but in the long term there is a risk of weakening the credibility of central banks and inflation.

These concerns also contribute to reigniting the "US asset selling" trend, causing Treasury bond yields and the USD to depreciate. When cash flow leaves these channels, gold and silver become attractive options for investors.

Real supply and demand are also pushing gold prices up. China has found new export markets despite tariff barriers, bringing trade surpluses to record levels and leading to a large demand for metals used in electronics manufacturing. The explosion of artificial intelligence and data centers is also increasing demand for many types of industrial metals.

Rising metal prices could exacerbate the cost of living in the US. This is because the metals mentioned above are widely used in a series of consumer goods. Meanwhile, oil prices, although still low compared to history, have also begun to rise along with other commodities.

“Summary, we are witnessing serious industrial metal inflation. The next Fed Chairman will face an extremely difficult problem” - independent analyst Peter Boockvar said.

Thanh Hà
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