Escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially the risk of congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, are pushing global oil prices to triple digits - and Russia is one of the most obvious beneficiaries.
According to Izvestia newspaper, Russian oil prices have increased sharply by more than 70% amid escalating conflict around Iran and energy flows through Hormuz being almost interrupted. As of March 26, Brent oil prices traded around 106 USD/barrel, while Russian Urals oil reached about 98 USD/barrel.
It is worth mentioning that Russia's budget for 2026 is built on a scenario where oil prices are only about 59 USD/barrel. This large gap is opening up huge financial space.
According to expert Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global, if the price of Urals oil remains in the range of 90-100 USD/barrel by the end of the year, the Russian budget may collect an additional 2.5-3.5 trillion rubles (equivalent to 29.6-41.5 billion USD). Even if prices fall in the second half of the year, additional revenue may still reach 17-23.7 billion USD.
Not only oil prices, the exchange rate factor also contributes to "amplifying" revenue. The ruble has depreciated by about 10% since the beginning of March, falling to about 82 rubles/USD on March 26. This helps export revenue converted into domestic currency increase sharply, thereby directly expanding tax revenue for the budget.
From a short-term perspective, Mr. Andrey Shadrin from Absolut Bank said that Russia's monthly oil and gas revenue could increase from about 400 billion rubles to more than 1,000 billion rubles. Thus, each month of Hormuz disruption could bring in at least 600 billion rubles (about 7.1 billion USD) for Moscow.
Experts predict that in the next few weeks, oil prices will be extremely sensitive to developments around Iran. If tensions continue to escalate - especially attacks on energy facilities or oil tankers - prices may approach the 150 USD/barrel mark. Conversely, if cooling signals appear, the market will quickly stabilize.
A noteworthy recent sign is Iran's announcement about collecting fees for ships passing through Hormuz, up to 2 million USD/trip - a move showing that this country is seeking to control the strategic transport route instead of letting the conflict escalate out of control.
In that context, Russia's budget problem is changing in a favorable direction. From facing deficit pressure, Moscow now has an additional financial "buffer zone" thanks to rising energy prices - once again showing that geopolitics and the oil market are always closely linked.
