Despite being forecast to be more vibrant than average, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has begun quietly, with no named storms for the fourth consecutive year before June 1.
The Atlantic hurricane season is scheduled to last 183 days, starting from June 1 to November 30. On average, the region has about 14 tropical cyclones named each year, with the first storm typically forming around June 20. However, when forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season, the arrival of storms earlier than this time frame is often an important sign.
This year, both Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a slightly above-average 2025 hurricane season. Accordingly, experts expect the first storm to appear before June 20 to keep up with the season's pace.
However, there is no sign that a strong enough system will form in the coming days. This raises the question: When will Andrea - the first storm on the 2025 list - officially appear?
However, a slow start does not mean a weak season. History has proven the opposite. In 2004, for example, the first storm only appeared on July 31, but the storm season then exploded with 15 named storms in less than 6 weeks.
2024 also recorded unusually long lulls - from mid-July to early August and continuing from late August to mid-September - periods that were once the peak of the hurricane season.
Currently, major forecast models such as ECMWF and ICON have not recorded any signs of a cyclone forming in the Atlantic in the short term, except for the GFS model - which experts have questioned about the accuracy of this situation.
In contrast to the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean has started the hurricane season with Typhoon No. 1 Alvin and may welcome Typhoon No. 2 Barbara in the next few weeks.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has recorded a system off the coast of Mexico that is likely to develop into a depression or hurricane at an average level over the next 7 days.
Although hurricane activity in the Pacific does not directly reflect the intensity of the Atlantic hurricane season, it still has certain impacts. When there are strong storms in the Pacific, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean - where Atlantic cyclones often form - become less favorable.
The early formation of Hurricanes Barbara, even Cosome, could reduc the energy needed for the Atlantic, leaving the region quiet for the start of the season.
With the name Andrea still suspended, the question is not whether there will be a "storm" but when will the first storm break the silence of the 2025 storm season and will this year's storm season witness many rabies or not?
