The latest hurricane report from the Washington Post says there are at least two major differences that show the possibility of a severe 2025 hurricane season: The tropical Atlantic Ocean is not as warm as last year; The La Nina phenomenon is not expected to last until this year's hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November, typically peaking in September.
Last year, the hurricane season was very strong, with 18 named storms, including 5 hurricanes making landfall in the US, including Hurricane Helene.
Forecasters point out that among the many complex pieces that make up the storm season's appearance, including wind, air pressure, Sahara dust and monsoon activity, sea temperature is the main factor.
Scientists are looking for early signals in the Atlantic Development Area (MDR) stretching from the Caribbean to the west and near Africa to the east. Sea surface temperatures in the MDR are linked to typhoon formation. As the MDR cools, atmospheric conditions will not be favorable for storm formation.
According to the MDR's forecast, by July 2025, the Atlantic's hottest unusually warm ocean will be located further north. This means the 2025 typhoon season is less likely to be as intense as in 2024.
In early 2025, the tropical Pacific Ocean has entered the La Nina phase. However, La Nina is not expected to last long.
The formation of La Nina can prevent storms in the tropical Pacific, but favorable conditions for the formation of a storm are likely to appear in the tropical Atlantic.
One thing that can be confirmed for sure at this time is that, up to now, the factors affecting the Atlantic hurricane season seem to be clearly different from 2024. Atlantic Ocean temperatures are changing from last year, with the warmest unusually warm waters outside the MDR.
A heat wave is no longer covering the MDR but is still active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
In the Pacific, La Nina is gradually disappearing as the sea warms to the east. However, the phenomenon of complete ability to prevent storms is unlikely to appear. Meteorological experts say that the neutral ENSO phase will prevail during the peak of the typhoon season.
These weather factors will be closely monitored by forecasters as the hurricane season approaches. Official forecasts for the season are typically released in April and May.
The Washington Post's hurricane bulletin shows that data may continue to fluctuate but it is never too early to prepare, especially as the US has experienced the severe impacts of major storms during the 2024 hurricane season, including Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton.
