Revealing the country to replace Russia in leading the flow of European gas

Khánh Minh |

As Europe is gradually moving away from Russian gas, Poland has emerged as the most ambitious country in restructuring the region's energy supply structure.

Poland's goal is to become the largest and most influential importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Central and Eastern Europe, thereby providing neighboring countries with a more stable choice than traditional Russian gas sources.

Poland's momentum comes from its boost after 2022, when Gazprom cut off gas flows. Thanks to early preparation and supply diversification, this country overcame the shock better than many EU countries.

Now with a plan for Europe to end Russian gas supply by 2027, Poland is considering expanding its LNG infrastructure to become a transit hub for the whole region.

According to Gaz-System SA General Director Slawomir Hinc, the operator of the national pipeline system will decide in the first half of next year to build another LNG terminal in the Baltic Sea. He said that LNG demand has increased significantly in Poland and neighboring countries, creating a basis for expansion plans.

Poland has currently operated the Swinoujscie LNG terminal with a capacity of 8.3 billion cubic meters and is building a new floating station with a capacity of 6.1 billion cubic meters, expected to be completed in 2028. Both facilities have been closed to capacity by Orlen SA - a state-owned oil and gas group. However, with a third LNG station project, Poland's goal is to attract more international customers.

Although Croatia, Greece and Lithuania are also strengthening their LNG capacity, Poland's central position in the European gas network helps the country connect major supply routes. From here, imported LNG from the US can be pumped into Ukraine's huge reservoirs, or continue to landlocked countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary.

Poland has a structural advantage, especially the gate to the sea, said Mykhailo Svyshcho, an expert at ExPro Consulting in Kiev.

Poland has now transited US LNG to Ukraine, with plans to increase it from 600 million cubic meters in 2025 to more than 1 billion cubic meters next year. Ukraine also imports LNG via Lithuania, but this route is longer and more expensive, so adding LNG capacity in Poland will help optimize significantly.

In Slovakia, discussions are also taking place as the country looks for a roadmap to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Last month, in a feasibility survey, Gaz-System recorded demand from 14 units wishing to use potential LNG stations. Total peak demand is nearly 4 times higher than expected capacity, showing that about half of the gas can be exported. The ideal station should be operational from 2029 or 2030 to meet market demand.

Gaz-System is working with potential customers to build a more flexible and attractive usage mechanism. This is considered a key step for Poland's LNG ambition.

Although the transit role brings great benefits in energy security, the Polish market is not really friendly to traders. The long registration period and strict supply security requirements make Poland an unattractive destination for gas traders.

Khánh Minh
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