On October 19, US President Donald Trump once again affirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had told him that India would stop buying Russian oil.
"I have spoken to Indian Prime Minister Modi, and he has pledged to stop buying Russian oil," Trump said.
However, when reporters said the Indian side denied his claim, President Trump responded with a warning: "If they want to say that, they will continue to pay huge tariffs, and they don't want to do that."
India's purchase of Russian oil is one of the main bottlenecks in trade relations with the US. The US said the move was helping to finance the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and therefore took retaliatory action. Half of the total 50% tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed on Indian goods are seen as a direct punishment for India's failure to stop buying Russian oil.
This is the second time in a week that Mr. Trump has made this statement. On October 15, he also said that Prime Minister Modi had assured him that India would stop buying Russian oil. In response, the Indian Foreign Ministry denied it was not aware of any phone calls between the two leaders on that day and affirmed that India's main concern was "protecting the interests of Indian consumers".
Meanwhile, the actual data also seems to contradict Mr. Trump's statement. Although a White House official said on October 16 that India had reduced half of its Russian oil purchases, there was no immediate decline, according to Indian sources. Accordingly, Indian refineries have placed orders for November, so any cuts could only begin to appear in December or January imports.
Even, according to estimates from commodity data company Kpler, Russian oil imports into India this month are expected to increase by about 20% to 1.9 million barrels per day.
Since Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, India has become Russia's largest customer of crude oil transported by sea, taking advantage of discounted prices.
President Trump seems to be using bilateral relations and tariff leverage to force countries to isolate the Russian economy, rather than relying solely on multilateral sanctions. However, he also acknowledged that India's stop buying oil will not happen "immediately", calling it a process, but that process will soon end.
