On January 6, a security conference organized by France took place in Paris with the participation of 35 international delegations, including 27 national leaders. However, contrary to previous optimistic statements by French President Emmanuel Macron in his speech on December 31 about a "fair peace", the negotiating table is becoming much more gloomy.
The shadow of the crisis in Venezuela has covered the agenda on Ukraine. Right before the conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled his plan to go to Paris to focus on handling the military campaign that just took place in Caracas last weekend.
Instead of appointing a head of state, the US has authorized 2 special envoys of President Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. This last-minute adjustment of the delegation's composition makes Ukraine and European countries worried that the US is neglecting the Eastern European front to focus its efforts on its "backyard" in Latin America.
At the conference, the parties are expected to discuss 5 core post-conflict priorities, including: a ceasefire monitoring mechanism, support for Ukrainian armed forces, deployment of multinational forces, commitment to protection if Russia attacks again, and long-term defense cooperation.
However, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged a difficult reality that consensus in the Western bloc is shaking.
Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, he said: "Frankly speaking, the existence of this alliance depends on whether countries are willing to increase their presence. If they are not willing, then this is not really an alliance.
Mr. Zelensky emphasized that not everyone is willing to commit to sending troops to Ukraine to participate in peacekeeping forces, even if a ceasefire is reached. Although Kiev expects the role of European nuclear powers such as Britain and France, the leaders of these countries are also facing major legal barriers.
According to Mr. Zelensky, many partner countries need approval from parliaments to pass such important military decisions, and this is not an easy process.
Before the January 6 event took place, US special envoy Steve Witkoff had hinted at the progress in discussions with security advisors from Britain, France and Germany. However, with the US suddenly shifting its attention to changing the regime in Venezuela, Western calculations to put pressure on Russia at the negotiating table are becoming ineffective.
Observers believe that without a solid security guarantee commitment from the US, European countries will be very hesitant to risk sending troops to Ukraine, causing the Paris conference to risk ending without achieving specific commitments as Kiev expects.
