Hurricane forecasters say Rafael is not the last storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Although it is the end of the season, things look favorable for one or two more storms, Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today. "In addition to the disturbance area that the US National Hurricane Center is monitoring, a low pressure may form north of the Leeward Islands, with the possibility of another potential low pressure in the Caribbean."
The 2024 typhoon season is an unusually active season, with 17 named storms forming, up to an average of 14. Of those 17, 11 were hurricanes, including catastrophic Helene and Milton. The official hurricane season ends on November 30, although occasional storms form in December.
Global climate models that can help form storms
"There is no clear evidence yet, but conditions seem quite favorable for the formation of many other storms after Rafael," Klotzbach said.
He said global climate models such as the Madden-Julian fluctuations (MJO) promote storm formation. MJO is a disturbance of clouds moving eastward, with rainfall, wind and pressure passing through the planet in the tropics and returning to the starting point within 30 to 60 days. MJO affects weather, including typhoon formation, globally.
In addition, the forecast wind shear will be much lower than normal in the mid- to late month. Klotzbach said that wind shear in most of the Western Caribbean is expected to be between 10 and 20 nautical miles, which could definitely promote another storm.
Storm forecast for next week
Another expert, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul pastelok, told USA Today that a low pressure/storm could form in the Caribbean over the next week, largely due to no wind shear. Any form could follow a similar path to Rafael.
Rafael has an unusual path in history. The storm formed and moved across the Caribbean, passed through Jamaica, then passed through the Cayman Islands as a typhoon, made landfall in Cuba and left the country on November 7. The change in path has caused the threat to the US to ease, but to increase for the Gulf Coast.
Federal scientists at the Climate Prediction Center note that the Caribbean next week "will create a favorable environment for the development of hurricanes at the end of the season". The forecast shows potential storms forming in the western or central Caribbean as well as the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
November storms are rare but not uncommon
" Of the more than 1,700 tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1842, 125 have occurred in November," WNCN-TV meteorologist Rachel Duensing pointed out, adding: "125 are still large, but for the entire hurricane season, that number accounts for only 7% of all named storms."
Of the storms that hit the US, only four were recorded to have made landfall in the US mainland in the penultimate month of the year, but the most recent - Nicole - made landfall in Florida just two years ago.
