Hurricane forecasters say Rafael is not the last storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Despite being late in the hurricane season, things look “favorable for one or two more storms,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today. “In addition to the disturbance that the NHC is monitoring that could form north of the Leeward Islands, there is the potential for another potential low in the Caribbean.”
The 2024 hurricane season was an unusually active one, with 17 named storms forming, above the average of 14. Of those 17, 11 were hurricanes, including the disastrous Helene and Milton. The season officially ended on November 30, although occasional storms formed in December.
Global climate models can help shape hurricanes
"There's no clear evidence yet, but conditions look quite favorable for more storms to form after Hurricane Rafael," Klotzbach said.
He said global climate patterns like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) drive hurricane formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, precipitation, winds and pressure that travels across the planet in the tropics and returns to its starting point within 30 to 60 days. The MJO influences weather, including hurricane formation, globally.
Additionally, hurricane-breaking wind shear is forecast to be much lower than normal in mid- to late-month. Klotzbach said wind shear is forecast to be in the 10- to 20-knot range across much of the Western Caribbean, which could certainly spur another storm.
Storm forecast next week
Another expert, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok, told USA Today that a depression/hurricane could form in the Caribbean in about a week, largely due to the lack of wind shear. Any form could follow a similar path to Hurricane Rafael.
Hurricane Rafael has an unusual path that is unprecedented in history. It formed and moved across the Caribbean, passing over Jamaica, then crossed the Cayman Islands as a hurricane, making landfall in Cuba, and departed the country on November 7. The change in path has reduced the threat to the United States but increased the threat to the Gulf Coast.
Federal scientists at the Climate Prediction Center note that the Caribbean next week “will create a favorable environment for late-season hurricane development.” The forecast shows potential hurricanes forming in the western or central Caribbean as well as the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
November storms are rare but not unheard of.
"Of the more than 1,700 tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1842, 125 have occurred in November," WNCN-TV meteorologist Rachel Duensing pointed out, adding: "125 is still a lot, but in terms of the entire hurricane season, that number represents only 7 percent of all named storms."
As for hurricanes hitting the US, only four storms have been recorded to have made landfall in the US in the penultimate month of the year, but the most recent – Hurricane Nicole – made landfall in Florida just two years ago.
