On November 2, forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there was an 80% chance of a large low pressure area forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next 7 days.
A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could bring thunderstorms to the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into another system.
Meanwhile, subtropical storm Patty formed west of the Azores, an autonomous region of Portugal in the mid- Atlantic, on the morning of November 2. This is the 16th storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NHC warns that although the Atlantic hurricane season has entered its final month, the worst may still be ahead. The next named storms will be Rafael and Sara.
The latest NHC hurricane forecast shows that as of 1:00 p.m. on November 2 East time, the center of Hurricane Patty was located at approximately 39.0 degrees north latitude, 32.4 degrees west longitude, about 480 km west-northwest of Azores. Maximum sustained winds near the center of the storm are 104 km/h. The storm is moving east-southeast at a speed of 20 km/h.
The storm is expected to move faster to the east-southeast overnight, then turn east and east-northeast on November 4.
Since 1851, only four hurricanes have made landfall on the U.S. coast in November.
While previous months of the Atlantic hurricane season typically saw hurricanes appear off the coast of Africa, giving people a heads-up before they moved across the Atlantic, the final month of the 2024 hurricane season was not like that.
"As we enter early November, the focus of hurricane development will shift closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus at the end of the season are the Caribbean and off the southeast coast of the United States," the NHC said.
The NHC forecasts that, in addition to subtropical storm Patty, a tropical depression could form later this week in the Caribbean. Localized heavy rains are possible over parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. The NHC rates the chance of formation at 70% in the 48 hours and 80% in the 7 days.
Meanwhile, the trough near the Greater Antilles may develop slowly over the next few days and early next week, the system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the next few days across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
AccuWeather forecasters say the Caribbean remains warm enough to promote storm development. Strong winds, known as shear, are also still low in the area.
"At this time, the most likely area for hurricane development is in the western and central Caribbean, and the hurricane development time frame is from November 2 to 5, near the major northern Caribbean islands, possibly Jamaica," said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist.
