On November 2, hurricane forecasters from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there was an 80% chance that a large low-pressure area would form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next 7 days.
A system farther east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into another system.
Meanwhile, subtropical storm Patty formed west of the Azores, an autonomous region of Portugal in the mid-Atlantic, on the morning of November 2. This is the 16th storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NHC warns that even though the Atlantic hurricane season has entered its final month, the worst may still be ahead. The next named storms will be Rafael and Sara.
The latest NHC hurricane forecast bulletin indicates that as of 1 p.m. on November 2, ET, the center of Hurricane Patty was at approximately 39.0 degrees north latitude, 32.4 degrees west longitude, approximately 480 km west-northwest of the Azores. Maximum winds near the storm center were 104 km/h. The storm was moving east-southeast at 20 km/h.
The storm is expected to move more rapidly to the east-southeast overnight, then turn to the east and east-northeast on November 4.
Since 1851, only four hurricanes have made landfall on the US coast in November.
While earlier months of the Atlantic hurricane season typically saw storms appear off the coast of Africa, giving people a heads-up before they moved across the Atlantic, the final month of the 2024 season was anything but.
"As we enter early November, the focus of hurricane development will shift closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the southeastern coast of the United States," the NHC said.
In addition to Subtropical Storm Patty, a tropical depression could form in the Caribbean later this week, the NHC forecasts. Locally heavy rains could occur over some adjacent land areas in the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. The NHC estimates the chance of formation at 70% in the 48 hours and 80% in the 7 days.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure near the Greater Antilles could slowly develop over the next few days, and the system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the next few days across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
The Caribbean Sea remains warm enough to foster hurricane development, AccuWeather forecasters said. Strong winds, known as shear, also remain low in the region.
"At this time, the area of greatest potential for hurricane development is in the western and central Caribbean, and the time frame for hurricane development is November 2-5, near the major northern Caribbean islands, possibly Jamaica," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
