Hard inside, easy outside

Hạ Lang |

From the beginning of 2025, the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) was transferred from Hungary to Poland. The EU seemed to be relieved about this because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in his six-month tenure as rotating EU president, has made the EU more unhappy than happy, more conflicted than cooperative with the EU, and because Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is known as a supporter and close friend of the EU, having once served as President of the EU Council.

There is a clear contrast between Mr Orban and Mr Tusk. Mr Tusk is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, while Mr Orban is more reserved. Mr Orban has a special personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Mr Tusk is hostile to Putin and the EU as a whole. Mr Orban’s relationship with the EU is rocky, while Mr Tusk’s is the opposite.

The easy thing for Mr. Tusk and Poland is to have a rare opportunity to build up a role, enhance the position and increase the influence of Poland in the EU when the EU is still facing many difficulties, when the two members that have always been considered the locomotives, France and Germany, are both in a state of political crisis, power, insecurity and socio-political instability. Former US President Donald Trump is about to return to power, causing confusion in the EU, but Mr. Trump has no reason to criticize Poland when Poland has become the NATO member with the strongest increase in defense budget, allowing the US to set up a missile defense base on its territory. Mr. Tusk's intention to support Ukraine and confront Russia is strongly supported by the EU and NATO.

The difficulty for Mr. Tusk comes from within. Poland is about to have a presidential election, so Mr. Tusk must be cautious and focus on winning over voters. Therefore, this person will not do anything good for the EU but will go against the wishes of Polish voters, such as not promoting the implementation of the EU's major strategy on global climate or opening the EU's agricultural market, not promoting the EU to remove its veto power in the EU...

With such a difficult inside and easy outside, Poland may be more successful than Hungary, but it cannot be as successful.

Hạ Lang
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