The volatile future of Nord Stream and Russian gas in the EU

Thanh Hà |

The signal of peace in Ukraine raises questions about the future of Russian gas in Europe, including the resumption of gas supply via the Nord Stream pipeline.

The Nord Stream gas pipeline is now the largest transport route of Russian gas to Europe, in addition to pipelines through Belarus, Ukraine and Türkiye.

The Nord Stream pipeline consists of two pairs of pipelines capable of transporting 110 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe per year.

The first pair, Nord Stream, began operations in 2011 and the second pair, Nord Stream 2, were completed in 2021 but have never received an operating license.

Reuters pointed out that a clear barrier to connecting supplies through the Nord Stream system is the damage caused by the explosion in September 2022.

The Nord Stream pipeline pair and a branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were sabotaged, leaving only one branch intact. It is not yet clear who was responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage.

The damaged branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is estimated to still contain about 9-10 million cubic meters of gas, while the intact branch of the pipeline is still filled with gas.

However, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 - Nord Stream 2 AG pipeline (a unit of Gazprom, Russia) is under pressure to pay creditors.

A Swiss court has set a deadline for May 9 for Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 AG to restructure debts and repay small creditors. The operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline may declare bankruptcy if it does not meet this requirement.

In January 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the possibility of Nord Stream 2 AG going bankrupt or being sold would be considered by Russia as an act equivalent to theft.

There are also a number of ongoing lawsuits against Gazprom over disruption of gas supplies.

Cederic Cremers - vice president of integrated gas operations at Shell, one of the sponsors of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - said that these lawsuits need to be resolved before any considerations are made regarding the restart of gas transportation through Nord Stream 2. And even then, the question remains whether Europe still wants to depend on Russian gas.

In December last year, the US announced additional sanctions against Russia-based entities involved in the development of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, including the operator and a Russian insurance company that provided insurance to companies involved in the project.

Another challenge for reopening the Nord Stream system in the Baltic Sea is that Europe has shifted away from Russian energy supplies since Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014 and when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. In addition, Europe may not want to return to using Russian gas.

The European Commission stated that Nord Stream 2 is not a project for the common good and does not diversify the EU's energy sources.

Germany, once the largest buyer of Russian gas in Europe, recently reaffirmed its failure to negotiate with Russia on gas supplies.

Most European countries are looking for alternative supply sources, including increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Africa and the Middle East; receiving more pipeline imports from suppliers such as Norway and Algeria, and increasing renewable energy production.

Thanh Hà
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