The latest typhoon information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on December 12 said that a potential low pressure area is developing outside the Philippine forecast area (PAR). This potential low pressure area is forecast to approach the Philippines in the week before Christmas.
Notably, PAGASA storm forecasters warned that this low pressure has the potential to strengthen into a low to moderate tropical storm.
If it strengthens, the storm near the South China Sea could affect the eastern parts of Mindanao, Visayas and Southern Luzon in the Philippines. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, the system will be named “Querubin.”
According to the PAGASA weather advisory, heavy to very heavy rains due to wind shear will occur in Quezon province on December 12. The system will also affect the weather in Isabela, Aurora Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes in the coming days.
Manila Standard noted that PAGASA had previously forecast that the new storm could enter PAR between December 16 and 22. Based on PAGASA’s latest weather analysis, the potential system is now a tropical depression, but it is still too early to determine the exact track or intensity of the system.
“We forecast that a tropical depression near the southern part of the tropical storm warning area TCAD may form and may move towards the Visayas and Southern Luzon regions,” PAGASA’s forecast bulletin on December 10 noted.
Philippine weather forecasters said rains caused by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to affect the western part of Mindanao and Palawan in the coming days.
The Philippines experiences an average of 20 tropical storms each year. This October and November alone saw six storms, killing 171 people and leaving thousands homeless.
The typhoon also caused significant damage to crops and livestock in the Philippines, highlighting the country's vulnerability to extreme weather conditions.
For the 2024 typhoon season, weather agency PAGASA will use a new set of names for tropical storms that form within or enter the Philippine forecast area. Among them, Aghon, Querubin, Romina and Upang will be used for the first time, replacing the names Ambo, Quinta, Rolly and Ulysses, which caused heavy damage during the 2020 typhoon season.
Typhoon names in the Philippines are renewed every four years unless retired. PAGASA revokes or discontinues use of a storm name if it causes at least 300 deaths or major damage to the economy, infrastructure, housing, and other assets.
PAGASA is the only weather agency in the world that assigns local names to storms. This has been a practice of the Weather Bureau, PAGASA's predecessor, since the 1960s in the hope of providing more effective warnings to the public.
