Forecast of unexpected fluctuations in gasoline prices in the operating period tomorrow

Thạch Lam |

It is forecasted that gasoline prices may increase by 0.9-1.8% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to a survey at 1:48 p.m. on June 11 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price decreased by 0.07 USD/barrel (down 0.11%), down to 64.91 USD/barrel. Brent oil price decreased by 0.12 USD/barrel (down 0.18%), down to 66.75 USD/barrel.

OPEC+ (including oil exporters and allies such as Russia) plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day in July, continuing to gradually reduce production cuts for the fourth consecutive month.

Hamad Hussain, a climate and commodity economist at Capital Economics, said that increased oil demand, especially in Saudi Arabia, could help balance supply and demand and support oil prices. However, he predicted that Brent crude oil prices will fall to $60/barrel by the end of the year due to crop calculation of demand growth.

For the domestic market, Mr. Doan Tien Quyet - data analysis expert of VPI predicted that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 173 VND (0.9%) to 19,433 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 217 VND (1.1%) to 19,907 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices will also increase in this period. Specifically, diesel oil may increase by 1.8% to VND17,734/liter, kerosene may increase by 1.6% to VND17,556/liter, and mazut is forecast to increase by 1.3% to VND16,380/kg. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

According to a representative of a petroleum business, domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price adjustment period, retail prices of gasoline may increase.

In particular, the price of RON 95 - III gasoline is forecast to increase by about 280 VND/liter; E5 RON 92 - II gasoline increases by about 200 VND/liter; Diesel increases by about 290 VND/liter.

Domestic retail gasoline prices on June 11, 2025 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on June 5 of the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In yesterday's adjustment session (June 5), the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased compared to the previous adjustment period, at VND 19,263/liter (up VND 67/liter). RON 95-III gasoline price increased compared to the previous adjustment period, priced at VND19698/liter (up VND133/liter).

Prices of oil products fluctuated in different directions. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND17,420/liter (up VND284/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND17,284/liter (up VND176/liter); mazut is priced at VND16,178/kg (down VND86/kg).

Thạch Lam
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