Domestic coffee prices decrease
According to the survey on the morning of April 1, 2025, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands has decreased steadily, commonly around 131,200 - 132,300 VND/kg.
Dak Lak: 132,300 VND/kg (down 700 VND).
Lam Dong: 131,200 VND/kg (down 800 VND).
Gia Lai: 132,200 VND/kg (down 600 VND).
Dak Nong: 132,300 VND/kg (down 700 VND).
The second consecutive price decline was mainly due to profit-taking on the London Robusta exchange, in the context of trading in early April being affected by the upcoming abundant supply pressure.
London Robusta coffee prices continue to decline
At ICE Futures Europe ( London), Robusta closed the session on March 31 ( GMT) down over 1% compared to the previous day:
May 2025 term: 5,269 USD/ton, down 68 USD (1.27%).
July 2025 term: 5,295 USD/ton, down 59 USD (-1,3%).
September 2025 term: 5,263 USD/ton, down 51 USD (-0.96%).
November 2025 term: 5,177 USD/ton, down 54 USD (1.03%).
The profit-taking force caused Robusta to lose its previous price increase results, especially after the market heard that the forecast for the Brazilian and Vietnamese seasons were both positive.
New York Arabica slightly decreased
On ICE Futures U.S. (New York), Arabica coffee prices also fell slightly, ranging around -0.05% to -0.36%:
May 2025 term: 379.75 cents/lb, down 0.20 cents (-0.05%).
July 2025 term: 375.40 cents/lb, down 1.00 cents (-0.27%).
September 2025 term: 370.35 cents/lb, down 1.25 cents (-0.34%).
December 2025 term: 363.20 cents/lb, down 1.30 cents (-0.36%).
Arabica prices returned to the 370 - 380 cents/lb zone, significantly lower than in early March. Weather factors in Brazil are gradually improving, while inventories on the stock exchange are still low but not strong enough to push prices up.
Coffee exports in the first quarter of 2025 are estimated at 2.8 billion USD
In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam's coffee export turnover is estimated to reach about 2.8 billion USD - a figure close to the annual target of 8 billion USD. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), this impressive growth rate is mainly due to the strong increase in export coffee prices compared to the same period last year.
The average price in the first quarter reached 5,614 USD/ton, 73% higher than the 3,228 USD/ton of the first quarter of 2024. In the first half of March alone, export coffee prices have reached 5,798 USD/ton and are expected to soon reach 6,000 USD/ton if the current trend continues.
In terms of export market, Germany continues to be the largest customer of Vietnamese coffee. Other major markets are Italy, Japan, the United States and Spain.
Coffee price forecast
In the short term, domestic coffee prices have decreased mainly due to the influence of developments on the London exchange, when Robusta products are under strong profit-taking pressure from speculators. However, export prices remain high and are expected to remain stable thanks to good consumption demand in key markets such as Europe and North America.
In the medium term, the market will be greatly affected by Brazil's Robusta/Conilon harvest, expected to start in April. If output reaches the forecast high level, abundant supply can create pressure to slow down or slightly decrease international coffee prices.
In the long term, the coffee export target of 8 billion USD in 2025 is completely reasonable, with the condition that world prices remain around the threshold of 5,500 - 6,000 USD/ton. However, weather factors in the two major producing countries, Vietnam and Brazil, will play a decisive role, especially in the context of the possibility of La Niña phenomenon appearing at the end of the year, which could have a big impact on the crop and prices.
