Domestic coffee prices
On September 22, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased by VND600/kg compared to the end of the week, bringing the average price to VND112,000/kg.
All localities have recorded an increase. Dak Lak increased by 500 VND/kg to 112,000 VND/kg.
Dak Nong (old) and Lam Dong have increased by 700 VND/kg to 112,200 VND/kg and 111,500 VND/kg respectively.
Coffee prices in Gia Lai increased by 600 VND/kg to 111,800 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
World coffee prices remained at the closing price of the trading session at the end of last week. Exchange rates have not reopened to reflect the latest developments.
The Robusta contract on the London Stock Exchange remains unchanged at 4,135 USD/ton.
Similarly, Arabica's contract on the New York exchange was also stable at 365.30 US cents/lb.
The increase in domestic coffee prices is ahead of the world market and will be a factor worth noting when international exchanges reopen early in the week.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
After a sharp decline, the coffee market is at a crossroads with opposite factors affecting it, creating instability.
The order to impose a 50% tax on imports from Brazil to the US has caused coffee inventories on ICE exchanges to decrease sharply. Arabica inventories have fallen to a 16.75-month low, while Robusta has also hit a 1.75-month low. The fact that US importers stop signing new contracts with Brazil is tightening supply.
The forecast of lack of rain in Brazil's key coffee growing regions before the important flowering period is putting pressure on the 2026/27 crop. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also raised its forecast for the likelihood of La Niña to 71%, which could cause prolonged droughts.
Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, has cut its estimated arabica coffee output and total coffee output in 2025, signaling that supply will not be as abundant as initially expected.
In contrast to Brazil, Vietnam's robusta coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year is forecast to increase by 6% over the same period, reaching the highest level in the past 4 years. Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 8 months of 2025 also increased by 7.8%, increasing the supply of robusta globally.
The coffee market is facing a tug-of-war between supply and demand. In the short term, the fear that after a sharp decline could still cause market fluctuations is forecast. However, fundamental factors such as record low inventories and long-term weather concerns in Brazil will continue to be the main drivers supporting prices. Therefore, although there may be downward adjustments, the long-term trend is still considered by many experts to be positive, according to barchart.vn.
