Domestic coffee prices
On November 5, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions decreased by 400 VND/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to 118,600 VND/kg. This decrease is an adjustment after yesterday's explosive increase.
Accordingly, in Dak Nong (old), the price decreased by 500 VND/kg to 119,000 VND/kg. Dak Lak decreased by 300 VND/kg, to 118,700 VND/kg. Gia Lai decreased by 500 VND/kg, to 118,000 VND/kg and Lam Dong decreased by 400 VND/kg, to 117,800 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market has all decreased slightly after the strong increase yesterday.
Robusta ( London) decreased by 30 USD/ton (equivalent to -0.63%), closing at 4,653 USD/ton. Arabica (New York) also decreased by 1.40 US cents/lb (equivalent to -0.34%), closing at 405.25 US cents/lb.
The main reason for this decline is that the Brazilian Real fell to its lowest level in 1.5 weeks. As the Real weakens, Brazilian farmers selling coffee ( Valued in USD) will earn more in- currency, which has encouraged them to sell to make a profit, increased supply and reduced prices.
Assessment and forecast
The coffee market is in a deep tug-of-war between factors.
Coffee prices are still strongly supported by the double weather risk. In Brazil, the largest Arabica growing region (Minas Gerais) received only 75% of the average rainfall, after a week of almost no rain (only 1%). In Vietnam, Typhoon Kalmaegi is expected to make landfall on Thursday or Friday, threatening to cause damage to Robusta growing areas.
Most importantly, the amount of coffee in stock on international exchanges continued to fall to a historical bottom ( Arabica is at 1.75 years, Robusta is at 3.5 months) due to the impact of the 50% US tariffs on Brazil.
However, the market is also being held back by hopes that the US-Brazil could lift a 50% tariff after the two Presidents' meeting. The supply of Robusta from Vietnam is also still very abundant, with the forecast that 2025/2026 output may increase by 10% and exports in the first 9 months of the year have increased by 10.9%.
