Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market in the trading session on December 5, 2025 recorded green, marking a recovery after previous days of fluctuations.
According to records in key Central Highlands growing areas, the price of green coffee beans has increased simultaneously from 200 to 500 VND/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to 103,900 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Lak province, the purchase price has increased by 400 VND compared to yesterday, listed at 104,000 VND/kg.
Similarly, in the "old" coffee capital of Dak Nong, prices also reached VND104,000/kg after increasing by VND200.
In Lam Dong province, although the price is slightly lower, the increase in the range is the strongest on the day, adding 500 VND to reach 103,300 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai, traders are purchasing at 103,600 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND.
World coffee prices
In the world market, the two derivatives exchanges showed mixed developments but brought many surprising factors.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US - New York exchange had a spectacular comeback after decreasing at the beginning of the session.
The contract for the March 2026 term (KCH26) closed up 6.50 cents (equivalent to 1.75%), closing at 378.95 cents/lb. The December 2025 spot contract also increased sharply by 6.90 cents to 410.65 cents/lb.
The main drivers of this increase come from forecasts of dry weather in Brazil and the strengthening of the Brazilian Real against the USD, causing farmers in this country to limit their sales. Climatempo has just issued a warning about drought and high temperatures that will cover Brazil's main coffee growing regions until next week.
In contrast to Arabica's excitement, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE EU - London exchange are under pressure to adjust in the near term. The January 2026 contract term decreased by 13 USD (0.29%), down to 4,302 USD/ton.
However, longer terms such as March 2026 recorded a price increase of 20 USD, reaching 4,232 USD/ton. The reduced pressure on Robusta mainly comes from information about harvest progress in Vietnam.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of technical and fundamental analysis, the coffee market is entering a period of strong competition between long-term and short-term supply and demand factors.
One fundamental factor that is putting downward pressure on prices is the latest report from Conab - Brazil's crop forecasting agency. Conab has just adjusted the estimated total coffee output of Brazil in 2025 by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, higher than the estimate in September.
In addition, the European Parliament's decision to postpone the implementation of the EUDR for another year has relieved concerns about short-term supply shortages in the EU market, allowing coffee flows from South America and Africa to continue to be maintained, putting pressure on prices.
However, the decline in coffee prices was significantly curbed by a serious decline in inventory. The standard Arabica inventory on the ICE floor fell to a 1.75-year low, down to just 398,645 bags at the end of November.
Similarly, ICE-supervised Robusta inventories also fell to their lowest level in more than 11 months. The underlying reason is said to be the new US tariffs on imports from Brazil, causing US buyers to cancel Brazilian coffee purchase contracts, leading to local supply tightening in the world's largest consumer market.
In the long term, StoneX forecasts that Brazil's 2026/27 crop output could reach 70.7 million bags, up 29% over the same period, a signal that supply will be abundant in the future.
However, in the short term, with rainfall in Minas Gerais ( Brazil's largest Arabica growing area) reaching only 39% of the historical average last week, Arabica prices are likely to continue to be sensitive to weather news.
For Robusta, supply pressure from Vietnam is present when the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) reported that exports in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 13.4%, but global consumption demand is still large enough to keep prices not too low.
