Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded unfavorable developments when purchasing prices in key Central Highlands regions were simultaneously adjusted down sharply compared to yesterday.
Pressure from the world market has caused domestic coffee prices to lose about VND1,500 to VND2,000/kg, pushing prices away from the peak level established at the beginning of the week.
In Lam Dong province, the purchase price decreased the most with a decrease of VND 2,000/kg, bringing the transaction price to VND 104,500/kg. This is currently the lowest price among the surveyed localities.
Meanwhile, in the coffee capital of Dak Lak, the average purchase price was recorded at 105,500 VND/kg, down 1,500 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
In Dak Nong (old), dealers are purchasing coffee at 105,500 VND/kg, down 1,500 VND/kg.
Gia Lai province recorded a decrease of VND 1,600/kg, currently the coffee price is trading around VND 105,000/kg. In general, market sentiment is quite cautious as the supply of the new crop has begun to be supplemented and world prices have not shown clear signs of recovery.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the world's two largest derivatives exchanges have just experienced a turbulent trading session with deep declines in both Robusta and Arabica. The red color covering the electronic board reflects investors' concerns about new macro information.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the London futures exchange for delivery in January 2026 fell sharply by 121 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of 2.70%, closing the session at 4,351 USD/ton. Subsequent delivery terms such as March, May and July 2026 also recorded a decrease of more than 2.7%, showing that the sell-off trend is dominating this floor.
Sharing the same negative trend, Arabica coffee prices on the New York futures exchange for delivery in December 2025 decreased by 5.95 cents/lb, equivalent to 1.44%, to 405.55 cents/lb. The March 2026 delivery period - an important reference period also closed with a decrease of 6.25 cents/lb (about 1.65%), stopping at 373.45 cents/lb. The simultaneous decline of both exchanges shows that the pressure to liquidate positions from speculative funds is very high.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
According to analysis from experts, the sharp decline in coffee prices in today's session stems from the core reason being that the supply prospect is becoming more abundant. The news that the European Parliament officially approved a further year of the EUDR last week has unblocked the market. This delay means that the flow of coffee from regions such as Africa, Indonesia and South America to the EU will not be interrupted immediately, reducing concerns about short-term supply shortages.
In addition, pressure from the harvest in Vietnam is also weighing on Robusta prices. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said the harvest progress is being accelerated thanks to forecasts of drier weather this month, with about 10% of the area harvested. Vicofa also forecasts that Vietnam's output in the 2025/2026 crop year could increase by 10% compared to the previous crop year if the weather is favorable, which is a bearish signal for the market.
However, the decline was somewhat dried up by weather concerns in Brazil. Rainfall in Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region - last week only reached 39% of the historical average. In addition, inventories on the ICE are at an alarming level as Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low and Robusta inventories hit an 11-month low. In addition, the US imposing tariffs on imported goods, including coffee from Brazil, has led to the cancellation of many purchase contracts, tightening supply in the US market. However, in the short term, the pressure from Vietnam's new harvest and investors' profit-taking may cause coffee prices to continue to struggle before finding a new balance point.
