The 2026 gold price outlook report just released by ING Bank shows a positive picture of the precious metals market, with expectations of an average price of 4,325 USD/ounce.
According to Ms. Ewa Manthey - ING's commodity strategist, the main drivers of gold prices over the past two years are still in value. Gold has had a spectacular growth year in 2025, when market value doubled in less than two years.
Key factors such as net central bank purchases, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cuts, a weakening USD, concerns about the Fed's independence and strong cash flow into ETFs all continue to support gold," she said.
Ms. Manthey commented that the complex geopolitical and economic context of the world is contributing to maintaining the psychology of finding safe assets. History shows that each major period of instability has created a leap for gold prices: surpassing 1,000 USD/ounce after the global financial crisis, to 2,000 USD/ounce during the COVID-19 pandemic, surpassing 3,000 USD/ounce when the US President Donald Trump administration announced new tariffs and touching 4,000 USD/ounce for the first time during the prolonged US government shutdown.
This trend shows a special role for gold in the context of increased risks, she emphasized.
Global gold demand sets new record
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global demand for gold in the third quarter of 2025 reached its highest level ever, reaching 1,313 tons. The main driver comes from investment flows, including 222 tonnes flowing into ETFs - the strongest quarterly increase in many years - along with demand for gold bars and coins reaching 316 tonnes.
Notably, central banks continued to be the locomotive of the market, with 220 tons of gold purchased in the third quarter, up nearly 30% compared to the previous quarter. Kazakhstan is the top buyer, while Brazil returned to buy gold for the first time since 2021. Poland continues to be a notable name when buying an additional 16 tons in October, bringing the total amount of gold held to 531 tons.
China has maintained a gold buying trend for 13 consecutive months, raising its reserves to 74 million ounces.
The strong buying trend of gold by central banks is explained by concerns about the risk of freezing foreign exchange assets - as in Russia - as well as the desire to diversify reserves. Annual central bank purchases of gold have doubled since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, surpassing 1,000 tonnes in 2024, the report said.
Risks from the possibility of selling gold and the financial market
However, ING also warned that some risks could affect gold's rally. In the Philippines, a member of the Central Bank's Board of Directors said that the country could consider selling less of its gold reserves.
In the US, Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed selling gold to buy Bitcoin - a move that could impact market sentiment if taken seriously.
In addition, the possibility of a major sell-off in the global financial market could force investors to sell gold to increase liquidity, causing downward pressure in the short term. Asylum demand could also ease if geopolitical tensions cool down.
However, ING believes that these risks are unlikely to change the long-term trend. We believe that central banks are restructuring their reserve strategies. The addition of gold will continue," Ms. Manthey affirmed.
ETFs and institutional investors return to the market
After a period of stagnation, capital flows into ETFs have shown clear signs of recovery. ING believes that this trend will be stronger in the context of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates in 2026.
Ms. Manthey said that ETF buying activities are closely linked to US monetary policy and there is more room to increase as holding is still below the peak in 2020.
Gold mining output is forecast not to put much pressure on prices. Since 2019, global output has been almost flat, while the characteristics of gold mining have caused supply to increase very slowly.
Even if output increases, the impact on prices is insignificant as the gold market is largely dominated by macro factors, the assessment report said.
With central banks continuing to buy gold, the US-China trade war showing no signs of cooling down, geopolitical risks remaining high and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates more and more strongly, ING believes that the gold rally will continue next year.
We expect gold prices to average $4,325/ounce by 2026, said Ms. Manthey. Although the growth rate may not be as explosive as this year, the general trend is still up.
