Gold prices have had an impressive increase since mid-December 2024, reaching a record high before showing signs of going down. The precious metal rose from $2,599.60 an ounce on December 18 to an all-time high of $2,974 an ounce yesterday, equivalent to an increase of 14.46% ($375) in just over two months.
Gold has also seen two big spikes in 2023. Since mid-February, gold prices have increased from below $ 2,000/ounce to $2,448.80/ounce, recording an increase of $451. Then, from late July to late September, prices continued to increase by 362 USD, from 2,351 USD/ounce to 2,708 USD/ounce.
With this increase approaching the same level as last year, many investors are starting to consider a strategy to exit the market.
Commerzbank experts said: "It is clear that these investors believe that the upside potential of gold has run out and are therefore taking profits." They cited the latest data from the US Commodity Exchange (CSTC), showing that hedge funds have reduced nearly 12,000 gold purchases.
Although there are still more than 200,000 net buy contracts, this move shows that gold's upward momentum may be weakening.
As of 5:30 p.m. EDT, the April gold futures were trading at $2,928.6 an ounce, down $40.30 (1.36%) on the day. The deal had previously hit a daily low of $2,897 an ounce before recovering slightly at the end of the trading session in New York.
Market sentiment shows that gold has been overbought after a recent strong rally. However, today's decrease comes amid rising trade tensions, as US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada and a 25% tariff on goods from both Canada and Mexico - the two largest trading partners of the US.
These tariffs, along with the current 10% tax on imports from China, are expected to curb global economic growth and reduce consumer demand.
Analysts at Saxo Bank commented: "Safe haven demand remains high due to tariff concerns. President Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will be implemented, leaving the risk of inflation and trade war at the center."
The combination of profit-taking activities and trade-geopolitical tensions creates a volatile context for gold price prospects in the short term. Technically, according to the stochastic index (a popular technical analysis tool, used to measure price movements by comparing current closing prices with the highest - lowest price range in a certain period of time), gold has been overbought since mid-January.
