The 2026 commodity outlook report believes that gold prices could reach $4,400/ounce, while silver could fall to $40/ounce, the PGM metal group (including 6 rare metals: platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium and Osmium) will lead the market in 2026.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting holdings costs, bond yields expected to plummet, and concerns surrounding the Feds independence make us believe that gold will set a quarterly price record of $4,400/ounce in the first 6 months of 2026.
Concerns that the Fed may no longer be determined to pursue the 2% inflation target in the future, along with the possibility of the White House putting pressure on interest rates in the context of record-high US public debt, are key factors strengthening the upward trend of gold, analysts said.
TD Securities believes that these factors will continue to promote the process of USD devaluation, de-dollarization and de- globilization, thereby supporting strong gold buying power from central banks. At the same time, investors are gradually leaving the traditional portfolio model of 60% stocks - 40% bonds, moving to allocate up to 25% to commodities, along with low interest rates, will continue to increase demand for gold.
According to the TD, gold could enter a new long-term price range of $3,500 - $4,400/ounce. For prices to fall below this zone, there needs to be a strong return of risk appetite for US assets, the labor market remains too solid or the Fed stops the interest rate cut cycle. In addition, if the story of USD devaluation and de-dollarization weakens, gold may also lose momentum.
However, TD predicts that the US labor market will weaken, the risky asset market will hardly increase strongly, while the Fed may cut by another 100 - 150 basis points even though inflation is still on target. In that context, gold will continue to benefit.
TD said central banks, ETFs and speculators will continue to buy gold strongly, thereby bringing the average quarterly price to a record of 4,400 USD/ounce in the first half of 2026, and trading peaks may even be higher.
Silver: From "silver squeeze" to "silver flood"
For silver, TD said the market is moving from a "restored" #silversqueeze to a "rich" #silverflood). Accordingly, more than 212 million ounces of silver have now returned to LBMA warehouses, enough to cover nearly two years of global supply deficits.
This large amount of inventory means that silver prices no longer need to increase sharply to stimulate supply to return to the market. Although prices have not collapsed, trading liquidity has declined sharply, increasing the risk of price adjustment. In addition, industrial demand is forecast to decrease by 2% next year, including demand from solar panels, jewelry and material investment.
The TD believes that silver lacks a strong inflationary hedge like gold. Even in a strong currency devaluation scenario, silver will be less effective than gold. Therefore, TD predicts that silver prices will find it difficult to return to the current range and may retreat to the mid-40 USD/ounce range in 2026.
platinum & Palladium: Star of the Year 2026
In contrast to the outlook for silver, TD Securities is extremely optimistic about the platinum metal group (PGMs). While the market is concerned about falling demand due to the "peak of internal combustion engines" and a sharp increase in scrap supply, TD believes that these reviews are too pessimistic.
According to TD Cowen's exclusive vehicle density survey, demand for cars in North America is still increasing thanks to the trend of expanding population to the suburbs. Just a small change in vehicle density could create a huge shift in platinum and palladium demand.
TD also forecasts that the supply of scrap from the catalytic conversion unit will not increase sharply before 2027, contrary to market expectations. Along with the lack of investment in mining, this will cause the PGMs market to continue to fall into a state of restructuring shortages in the coming years.
In addition, TD does not rule out the possibility of the US imposing tariffs on this metal group according to the S232 investigation, and that could trigger a similar "supply" of platinum and palladium to silver before.
TD Securities chose platinum and palladium as the two most prominent items for 2026, with prices forecast to be about 20% higher than the market consensus. Experts expect prices to increase, futures contracts to tighten and metal lease rates to increase.
