Pressure when "money in" cannot keep up with "money out
According to statistics from the State Bank of Vietnam as of December 24, 2025, there is a clear disproportionate picture in the capital flow of the economy. While credit grew sharply by 17.87% (compared to the end of 2024) to serve the urgent production and business needs at the end of the year, capital mobilization of the entire system showed to be "short of breath" when it only increased by more than 14%.
Sharing at the Q4/2025 press conference organized by the State Bank of Vietnam, Mr. Pham Chi Quang - Director of the Monetary Policy Department - said that the gap between mobilization and lending is increasingly widening, creating great pressure on the liquidity of the system.
Representatives of the SBV said that Vietnam's banking industry has a characteristic that 80% of capital sources are short-term, while 50% of outstanding loans are medium and long-term loans. The LDR ratio (debt-to-to-deposit ratio) is currently at 146% - the highest level in the group of low-middle-income countries.
In the context of hot credit balance growth, the imbalance of terms poses many risks. Banks are currently having to compete fiercely with other investment channels to attract capital," a representative of the SBV assessed.
Currently, idle cash flow in the population is being dispersed by fierce competition from other attractive investment channels (such as gold, securities, real estate...), causing the rate of deposits into banks to slow down significantly compared to the rate of pumping money into the economy.
The State Bank operates flexibly, applying new solutions
In the context of a volatile world economy, central banks around the world have an unpredictable monetary policy roadmap, coupled with increased domestic liquidity pressure, the market is concerned about the possibility that monetary policy may reverse to tightening.
However, the message from the SBV shows that the regulator still firmly adheres to the Government's direction: Maintain operating interest rates unchanged. Request credit institutions to reduce costs to reduce lending interest rates.
As a result, the SBV has implemented the difficult problem by implementing the direction of the Government and the Prime Minister, both ensuring macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation.
Credit growth this year is expected to reach an increase of 19% - a record high ever.
According to Mr. Quang's sharing, the above results are thanks to the SBV's implementation of many solutions in the past year to support liquidity for credit institutions, including new solutions such as using foreign currency exchange tools.
Determined to "hold" lending interest rates
Thanks to these "petition" solutions in the right place, local liquidity tensions have been eased without disrupting the momentum of economic recovery.
As of November 30, 2025, the average lending interest rate for newly generated transactions is only at 6.96%/year - equivalent to the end of 2024.
To do this, in addition to support from the SBV, commercial banks themselves must also minimize operating costs and promote digital transformation, accepting slim profit margins to accompany people and businesses.
Representatives of the SBV affirmed that in the coming time, they will continue to closely monitor market developments to have flexible management measures, ensuring harmony in the difficult problem: Both supporting liquidity for the system, and stabilizing the macroeconomy and controlling inflation.
