Recently, the image of people lining up in front of gold shops in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City has once again attracted public attention. The patient waiting lines reflect a series of profound problems that are weighing on the Vietnamese gold market - from lack of supply, market structure distortation, to asset defense psychology and media effects.
First, the serious shortage of gold supply is the direct cause of people's fear of no more gold to buy. According to Mr. Vu Hung Son - Vice President, General Secretary of the Vietnam Gold Business Association, many businesses have been forced to limit each customer to only buy a few taels, to prevent the phenomenon of large-scale investment in goods gathering. This creates the mentality of "gold is a rare commodity", causing people to rush to buy more because they are afraid of missing out on opportunities.
The shortage of supply is most clearly demonstrated in the raw gold segment for production. At the meeting of the Executive Committee of the Vietnam Gold Business Association in Ho Chi Minh City, the Association's leaders said that up to 60% of jewelry production and trading enterprises had to close due to lack of input materials.
This figure not only reflects a serious disruption in the supply chain but also signals the risk of declining manufacturing and export capacity, while the Vietnamese jewelry industry has a labor value ratio of 25-30% of product value.
In the context of a lack of supply, domestic gold prices are pushed to a new level of pressure, away from world prices. According to Dr. Nguyen Duc Do's analysis, the price difference mainly comes from limited supply, not from world price fluctuations.
Even according to data from reports presented at the forum, domestic gold prices in 2025 will increase by 84%, while the world will increase by only 62%. When the difference between domestic and foreign prices sets a record of 15 - 20 million VND/tael, domestic prices become even more of a "differential clock" operating according to domestic supply and demand.
People understand that if they do not buy early, prices can escalate further, and then long lines appear.
Another reason why people are waiting in front of gold shops comes from the psychological factor - belief - historical memories. Dr. Nguyen Duc Do pointed out that Vietnamese people have a tradition of hoarding gold to preserve assets since the war, subsidy and inflation in the late 1980s.
In the past two decades, gold has brought an average profit of up to 15%/year, far surpassing savings channels, bonds or even real estate in many stages. In the context of low interest rates, difficult real estate liquidity, and many fluctuations in stocks, it is understandable that people choose gold.
Experts say that the media effect and crowd psychology cannot be ignored. At the Vietnam Gold Market Forum: Advantages and challenges in the new period held on the afternoon of November 24, the organizing committee emphasized: When information about queuing to buy gold is repeated on social networks, many people feel that if they do not buy immediately, they will be "exposed from the game". The fear of losing opportunities (FOMO) motivates buying gold at high prices.
In addition, the black market and the fear of inspection and examination also contribute to the strain of supply. Some jewelry businesses have "temporarily closed" or limited transactions due to concerns about legal risks during the management tightening period. This caused a sharp decrease in the supply to the market, invisible, creating pressure on the gold bar segment - which had previously limited supply.
Meanwhile, the implementation of Decree 232/2025, despite great expectations, has not yet created a significant new supply source. Businesses are worried that the upcoming import quotas will mainly fall into the hands of banks and large enterprises, causing difficulties for small and medium enterprises. When the question of "how much new gold will be on the market?" has not been answered, the psychology of holding back has increased.
Overall, the long lines of people lining up are not simply a buying and selling phenomenon, but reflect three layers of the root problem: the market lacks supply - the market structure is not healthy - and the need to protect people's assets increases. This is also a manifestation of the "goldification" in the economy that the manager has repeatedly warned.
Experts say that if management policies do not quickly unblock supply and handle underlying markets, the situation of queuing to buy gold will certainly recur.
