How do you evaluate GDP growth in the third quarter?
- In the first 9 months of 2024, the economy grew by 6.82%, 1.5 times higher than the 4.4% growth rate in the same period last year. On the aggregate demand side, trade is recovering and positive FDI inflows are still the main growth drivers. Import and export of goods increased faster than expected, in the first 9 months of 2024, the total import and export turnover reached 578.5 billion USD, up 16.3% over the same period. This is a testament to the strong recovery and the increasingly improved competitiveness of Vietnamese goods in the international market.
On the aggregate supply side, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector was affected by Typhoon Yagi, with growth decreasing compared to the same period last year. The bright spot was the industry and construction sector, which increased sharply to 8.19% compared to 2.41% in the same period last year, thanks to the recovery in the processing and manufacturing industry, contributing 2.44 percentage points to the total value added growth of the entire economy.
A bright spot in the economic picture for the first 9 months is that private sector investment capital is quite strong, growing strongly compared to the FDI and State sectors. According to Directorate Statistics data, the private economic sector is growing strongly, with the number of newly registered enterprises and enterprises returning to the market increasing significantly.
What is your forecast for the economic growth scenario in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024?
- The recent storm No. 3 (Yagi) has significantly affected Vietnam's economic recovery in the third quarter and the rest of 2024 and early 2025. Based on the study, there are two low and high growth scenarios for Vietnam's economy. In the high scenario, growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be flat at 7.4%; in the low scenario, growth in the fourth quarter will be below 7%. Thus, with the low scenario, the growth rate in the fourth quarter is below 7%, combined with the deviation of growth forecasts of organizations, we forecast that growth in the whole year of 2024 will fluctuate around 6.84%. With the high scenario, growth in the whole year of 2024 is expected to reach 7%.
What solutions are needed to support businesses in the coming time to achieve economic growth goals, sir?
- Firstly, there needs to be caution in continuing to expand fiscal policies, especially policies on tax and fee exemption, extension, deferral, and reduction for businesses. I think it is still necessary to have policies to support businesses, but the subjects and policies should be narrowed. For example, regarding exports, it is necessary to support businesses to increase the proportion of domestic growth in export goods.
In particular, not only for each domestic private economic sector but also for the strategy of attracting foreign investment flows. For example, it is possible to create attractiveness or certain incentives for foreign investment flows related to high technology but must be accompanied by the use of more domestic value added to avoid importing inputs in the production of export goods. Or it is possible to combine the development of foreign investment flows with supporting industries associated with domestic enterprises, to improve the capacity to participate in the market.
The agricultural sector must continue to have support because this is still the sector with the highest added value in the entire export production chain.
For example, businesses that are shifting to new growth and production models associated with green transformation, renewable energy, and circular economy need support from domestic consumption demand. Businesses need connections with supermarkets and domestic markets to have sustainable orders.
Thank you!
