Industrial production continues to play a pivotal role
GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 8.22%, one of the two highest growth quarters since Covid-19, only lower than the 14.38% growth rate of the third quarter of 2022. In the first 9 months of GDP growth, it reached 7.84%, the second highest increase since 2011; the indicators viewed from the supply and demand sides were quite positive.
Analyzing supply, Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh - Head of the National Accounting System Department, Statistics Office said that economic sectors recorded quite positive developments in the third quarter and the first 9 months. Firstly, agricultural production, despite many difficulties due to the impact of storms and African swine fever, in return for perennial crops increasing in area and output, poultry farming and aquaculture developing more positively than the same period last year. Industrial production continues to maintain its pivotal role, leading growth. Construction activities have grown quite well thanks to promoting public investment and foreign direct investment.
The service sector has developed stably, activities celebrating the 80th anniversary of National Day on September 2, along with promoting tourism development, have affected the growth of related service industries, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the entire economy.
Looking from the demand side, Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh believes that final consumption, investment and export are three important pillars for economic growth in the third quarter and the first 9 months of 2025. Domestic consumption recovered significantly in the third quarter, reflecting a total increase in retail sales of goods and consumer services of about 9.5%, excluding the price factor of 7.2% (the same period last year increased by 5.8%). Maintaining the policy of reducing VAT by 2% from 10% to 8%, stimulating domestic consumption, spreading to domestic production of goods and services.
Investment continues to grow quite well thanks to strong investment in public investment, FDI maintains a positive growth momentum. Total social investment capital in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.6% over the same period in 2024, much higher than the increase of 6.8% in the same period in the first 9 months of 2024; FDI capital increased by 11.2% (the same period last year increased by 10.7%).
The recovery of the global supply chain along with efforts to diversify markets and products has created conditions for Vietnam's exports to continue to have a good growth rate, which is the main driving force for growth. Export turnover in the first 9 months grew impressively (about 16%), super large exports (about 16.8 billion USD).
Approaching the annual growth target of over 8%
The growth results in the first 9 months of 2025 reached 7.84% approaching the target scenario of over 8% for the whole year. To achieve the growth target for the whole year, the Vietnamese economy needs to achieve growth of about 8.4% in the fourth quarter - the highest level since 2011.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) assessed that this is an ambitious and challenging goal, especially in the context of the global economy still facing risks, geopolitical fluctuations and pressure to decrease international trade. In the last 3 months of the year, in addition to advantages, there are also many difficulties and challenges.
Firstly, the outside bridge is still weak and the protective fence, technical standards continue to be tightened. This development could slow down the progress of order signing, prolong compliance time, and directly affect industries dependent on imported raw materials if they do not adapt promptly.
Second, fluctuations in exchange rates and international capital flows at the time of year-end rebalancing can lead to increased import costs of raw materials, equipment and foreign currency debt obligations. Domestic enterprises continue to face pressure on financial costs, lack of long-term orders and exchange rate risks.
Third, policy space is gradually narrowing as the goal of both boosting growth and controlling inflation requires more cautious fiscal and monetary management.
Fourth, if the progress of public investment disbursement or land disbursement is still slow, the impact on the economy may not be able to take off in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Fifth, from the fourth quarter of 2025, US counterpart taxes will apply an additional tax layer to Vietnamese goods, increasing compliance costs. Enterprises must renegotiate prices, close orders more slowly, narrow profit margins and may shift markets. Production adjusted, increased localization of input, tightened traceability, optimized inventory and delivery plans.
Sixth, climate change, natural disasters and epidemics can affect agricultural production and domestic supply chains, extreme weather risks and logistics disruptions during the rainy and stormy season.
"With the above difficulties, in the last 3 months of the year, it is necessary to focus on prioritizing a number of industries and fields that are capable of creating a large spillover effect, both stimulating domestic demand and increasing export value" - Ms. Huong recommended.
