New research data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) shows that in 2025, the entire market recorded about 128,000 new products on sale, the highest level in the period 2019-2025 and approaching the "peak" of supply.
However, the market has not yet been completely "refreshed". Because the supply structure continues to be unbalanced when there is a serious shortage of affordable housing products, most of the new supply comes from high-end apartment projects and high-value low-rise products. Notably, about 25% of the apartment supply is priced at over 100 million VND/m2, mainly concentrated in some large investors.
However, from the end of 2025, the market began to change. Although there are still projects that are well absorbed, the differentiation is becoming increasingly clear as supply increases simultaneously on a large scale, with more diverse choices. Especially, when interest rates tend to increase, financial pressure begins to be clearly revealed for the group of investors using high leverage, expecting short-term surfing, participating in the market in "hot" ups.
This differentiation does not occur randomly, but is closely linked to fundamental changes in the market development space.
Accordingly, in recent years, the promotion of the development of expressways, belt roads, inter-regional and inter-provincial axes has created fundamental changes for the real estate market.
Especially in 2025, transport infrastructure recorded a strong breakthrough with a series of key projects being implemented and put into use. Specifically, the whole country started and inaugurated 564 projects with a total investment of more than 5.14 million billion VND, of which private capital accounted for nearly 75%. Infrastructure not only helps increase real estate value but also shortens travel time, while expanding development space, creating conditions for projects to develop into suburban areas and satellite cities, where there is still a very large land fund and a more suitable price level.
In parallel with infrastructure, removing legal obstacles for projects has become an important driving force for supply. About a thousand projects have been removed from difficulties and re-implemented. At the same time, many new projects, including very large-scale projects up to thousands of hectares, have also been approved and quickly implemented.
As supply increases on a large scale with more choices, the market begins to enter a stage of real competition. The price level continues to be maintained at a high level, but liquidity no longer evenly covers all regions and all segments.
In the context that real estate prices, especially in large cities, have increased high compared to average income, while capital costs, especially loan interest rates, continue to create pressure, the market gradually narrows participants. Real buyers are forced to have a solid financial foundation and long-term accumulation capacity. Investors are no longer easily achieving quick profits as in the previous period.
Surfing strategies based on unverified information, crowd effects or short-term expectations are increasingly risky, especially in the context of market data gradually being transparentized, notably the attachment of private identification codes for real estate. Investors are forced to switch to selective thinking, prioritizing real value, exploitation capacity, liquidity and risk management. Investors who use high financial leverage and lack long-term strategies will gradually be eliminated from the game.
In the long term, VARS believes that real estate prices will not increase "hotly" but will be difficult to reduce because real housing demand is always maintained at a high level, the economy is growing, especially infrastructure investment is constantly expanding, helping to increase real estate value and stimulate real estate investment demand. In addition, project development costs are increasing, especially financial obligations related to land according to the new land price list, also creating a new price level for the market.
However, market demand will be very selective. Projects with selling prices far exceeding the actual value, poorly connected locations, incomplete legal status or not suitable for real housing needs will face the risk of "freezing" transactions, even in the context that the general price level still maintains an upward trend.
