Apartment supply shifts to the "other side of the Red River"
According to the OneHousing Center for Market Research and Customer Insights, the Hanoi apartment market in 2025 will have about more than 30,000 new apartments - equivalent to the peak period of 2016 - 2019. However, the average price of newly opened apartments will reach 72 million VND/m2 (excluding VAT and maintenance fees) - an increase of 75% compared to the first quarter of 2022.
Of which, 48% of the new apartment supply in Hanoi next year will come from the East. With the major projects Vinhomes Ocean Park 1-2, the East is expected to continue to lead the market supply in 2025.
There are almost no new projects in the western area. According to Mr. Tran Quang Trung, this shows that Hanoi's development policy is to move towards the East. The area "across the Red River" will benefit in terms of infrastructure connection, quality and living conditions.
In addition, in 2025, the market will also witness clear changes in supply from investors. Mr. Tran Quang Trung - Business Development Director of OneHousing predicts that in 2025, nearly 1/3 of the total supply in the Hanoi market will belong to Masterise Homes. Masterise Homes' new projects in the North and East will contribute to enriching the supply of apartments for the market next year.
Initiating the growth cycle of Hanoi apartment market until 2030
Although apartment supply has shown clear signs of recovery, investors continuously launched new products in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, however, prices have not decreased because the new supply is mainly in the high-end and luxury segments.
“The rapid increase in apartment prices in Hanoi in a short period of time may cause a temporary shock reaction, but in the journey to 2030, this is just the beginning of a new growth cycle,” said Mr. Tran Quang Trung - Director of Business Development of OneHousing.
According to experts, the Hanoi apartment market is following the growth scenario of Ho Chi Minh City. In the next 2-3 years, the real estate market will become clearer with significant changes, including price fluctuations and adjustments in demand from both investors and home buyers. It is forecasted that all primary supply in Hanoi in 2025 will be in the high-end and luxury segments, of which luxury accounts for 36%.
“If 2 years ago, apartment prices in the Hanoi market were 30 to 50% lower than in Ho Chi Minh City, now, in some segments, they have approached 80% to 90%,” said Mr. Trung.
In addition, with the change of the new law, the input costs of projects have increased, investors no longer prioritize the mid-range segment, instead developing projects in the high-end and luxury segments to both achieve the profit expectations of investors and meet the needs of the growing middle class in Vietnam. In addition, in the coming time, the primary market in Hanoi will continue to welcome special product lines - a new price increase factor, not for the majority.
