Savills Vietnam's real estate market report in Q1/2026 shows that new supply only reached about 1,900 units, while the market-wide absorption rate decreased to 40%. According to Savills' assessment, credit tightening and rapid interest rate increases have changed buyers' mindsets.
According to data from DKRA Consulting, in the first quarter of 2026, new supply brought to the market reached about 6,500 units, down 41% compared to the previous quarter. Ho Chi Minh City continues to be the leading locality when accounting for 91% of the total primary supply of the entire market. The Grade B apartment segment leads, accounting for 41% of the total primary supply, concentrated in Binh Duong (old) and neighboring provinces, while Grade A apartments play a leading role in the Ho Chi Minh City area (old).
The primary selling price level increased by an average of 3% - 5% compared to the end of 2025 under pressure from input costs for project development. Selling prices on the secondary market did not fluctuate much compared to the beginning of the year, liquidity was somewhat stagnant due to the long Lunar New Year holiday and interest rates maintained at a high level.
DKRA Consulting forecasts that new supply in Q2/2026 is forecast to be maintained at a low level, fluctuating from 5,000 - 7,000 units. Investors are more cautious in deciding to open product sales amidst the context of "bottlenecked" credit room and fluctuating interest rates. Although banks have shown signs of adjusting deposit interest rates, policy delays make both supply and liquidity difficult to improve in the short term, especially when the price level is still high.
Primary price levels may continue to increase under the pressure of input costs for project development with market liquidity concentrated in large-scale urban projects," DKRA Consulting assessed.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong - General Director of Eras Land Real Estate Investment Joint Stock Company, Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association - said that interest rate fluctuations and credit policies are directly affecting both businesses and homebuyers, causing many difficulties for the market.
The real estate market today is still heavily dependent on credit, especially interest rates.Reality shows that most homebuyers have to borrow from banks at a rate of about 70% of asset value, with a loan term lasting 10-20 years.In the initial stage, interest rates are usually fixed at a low level, but then adjusted according to the market.
At times, preferential interest rates are only about 6-7%/year, but when the fixed period expires, they can increase to 13-14%, or even higher.This creates great pressure on borrowers, causing many households to have difficulty maintaining cash flow to repay debts.
Not only existing borrowers, new customer groups are also clearly affected when financial costs increase, causing housing demand to decrease.According to records, in the period of the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, real estate credit fell into a difficult state, and transactions in the market decreased significantly.
Difficulties piled upon difficulties for many real estate businesses when many projects have not been granted credit limits, although they have preliminarily worked with banks, are assessed as good and feasible, but it is very difficult to have loan room this year.
Mr. Vo Quoc Duc - Director of the Finance and Accounting Department - No Va Real Estate Investment Group Joint Stock Company (Novaland) - said that in fact, there are many projects that have been granted room but have not yet been disbursed. Therefore, new projects that are being discussed are very difficult to implement. Or some have commitments but somewhere at 10 VND, only a maximum of 2-3 VND can be disbursed. This situation greatly affects projects that have been and are about to be implemented by businesses.
According to a representative of Novaland, for real estate businesses, the financial market and credit room play an extremely important role. The company's products span many segments. Especially in Ho Chi Minh City, the tightening of credit room has affected high-rise housing projects that are highly meeting people's needs.
Interest rates need to be stable, suitable to the medium and long-term characteristics of the real estate market. If fluctuations are too strong, it will directly affect both businesses and homebuyers," Ms. Huong emphasized.
