Overview
After Group A, Group F is the group that Opta supercomputer assesses has the smallest difference in quality between teams.
Dortmund is the highest rated team, with a 92.7% chance of advancing before the tournament. Ulsan (20.8%) is considered the team with the least chance to continue. The 71.9% difference is the second largest between the highest and lowest rated teams in a group in this tournament.
Therefore, the matches between Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns and Fluminense are likely to be key.
This will be the first time clubs from South Korea and South Africa have met in an official tournament, although both teams have a history in the international arena.
Each team participated in the FIFA Club World Cup before, with Ulsan appearing twice, the most among Korean teams. However, they have lost all 4 matches.
Mamelodi Sundowns participated in a previous tournament in 2016 when the scale was much smaller. They had to return home after losing both matches against Japan.
However, Mamelodi Sundowns were considered the stronger team in this match and are very familiar with the victory.
With 24 wins in the 2024-2025 season, Mamelodi Sundowns has set a new record for the number of wins in a domestic season in South Africa. That took them to their 15th championship, more than all other clubs combined (14) and also their eighth consecutive title.
Ulsan's 3 consecutive K-League 1 championships in the past three seasons seem to be significantly less impressive when compared. Their streak of achievements also seems to end this season as they are falling deep in the rankings.
They qualify for the FIFA Club World Cup as the highest-ranked team in the AFC's rankings for the past 4 years. Meanwhile, Mamelodi Sundowns have won their place thanks to being second in the CAF's 4-year rankings, after Esperance Sportive de Tunis.
Although both teams have many local players in their squads, it is likely that the one who makes the difference is the Brazilian player.
Striker Lucas Ribeiro Costa of Mamelodi Sundowns scored 16. and directly participated in the most goals (25 16. goals and 9 assists) in the 2024-2025 South African National Championship.
He also had the most shots (73), the most shots on target (33), the most touches in the opposition box (137) and had the best xG (10.3) of all players in the tournament.
As for Ulsan, Erick Farias has scored 8 goals this season, a number that only two other players in K-League 1 could have done better. He was also among the scorers when Ulsan beat MLS side Charlotte 5-2 in a friendly without spectators last week.
Predicting the result
Supercomputer Opta believes that Mamelodi Sundowns are twice as likely to win this match as their opponents. The South African team's 3-point rate is 49.8%.
Score prediction: Ulsan 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns
The match between Ulsan and Mamelodi Sundowns takes place at 5:00 a.m. on June 18 (Vietnam time).
