Big4 enters the competition, short-term "ceiling"
Data recorded on December 12 shows that the wave of increasing deposit interest rates in the last days of the year is spreading from the private banking group to the state-owned enterprise sector. Since the beginning of December, the market has recorded 17 banks adjusting interest rates up.
Accordingly, the market focus is on BIDV's move after more than a year of stagnation. This bank has just adjusted interest rates for short terms sharply. 1-5 month term increased by 0.6%/year; 6-11 month term increased by 0.7%/year. Currently, the highest interest rate at BIDV is 5%/year for a term of 24-36 months. Despite the adjustment, BIDV and VietinBank (the bank that increased previously) still maintain a significantly lower level than the private sector.
The most notable trend in this adjustment is the "ceiling" trend for short terms (under 6 months). According to regulations, the ceiling for deposit interest rates for terms from 1 to less than 6 months is currently 4.75%/year.
Observations of interest rate listings show that many banks have pushed interest rates to reach this threshold. At the 1-month term, PGBank, VCBNeo and VPBank are leading at 4.75%/year. At the 3-month term, the "ceiling" group will expand with the presence of VIB, Nam A Bank and MBV (4.75%/year). Vikki Bank, NCB and BaoVietBank also closely followed the trend at 4.7%/year.
The fact that banks are simultaneously pushing short-term interest rates to the ceiling shows that the need to attract short-term capital flows is becoming urgent during the peak liquidity period at the end of the year.
The "three-horse" race in the long term
If short terms are limited by the interest rate ceiling, then for long terms (from 6 months or more), the differentiation will be more obvious with the rise of small and medium-sized banks, especially banks subject to mandatory transfers. Data shows that PGBank, Vikki Bank and Bac A Bank are creating a "neighborhood" position leading the market in most important terms.
At the 6-month and 9-month terms, all three banks listed the highest interest rate in the system at 6.5%/year. Followed by VCBNeo and NCB with 6.2% and 6.25%/year respectively. Meanwhile, the Big4 group (Agribank, BIDV, VietinBank, Vietcombank) only maintained around 2.9% - 4%/year for the same term.
At the 12-month term - an important reference term, Vikki Bank and PGBank continue to lead with 6.6%/year. Notably, VIB has just made a leap forward when it increased sharply by 1%, bringing the interest rate for this term to 6.5%/year, stepping into the leading group with Bac A Bank (6.55%/year).
For 18-month long terms, the highest interest rate recorded is 6.7%/year, continuing to belong to PGBank, Vikki Bank and Bac A Bank.
The interest rate gap between the leading group and the lowest group (such as Vietcombank, SCB) is currently very large. For example, for a 12-month term, the difference between the highest (6.6%) and the lowest (3.7% - SCB) is up to nearly 3%/year.
Synthesizing the market from the beginning of December until now, the list of units that have increased interest rates includes: Techcombank, MB, NCB, BVBank, Saigonbank, ACB, Bac A Bank, OCB, KienlongBank, Sacombank, SHB, PGBank, VIB, Vikki Bank, VCBNeo, BIDV and VPBank. In particular, VPBank, Techcombank and NCB have adjusted their interest rates twice in a short period of time.
Talking to Lao Dong, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh - Lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City Banking University said that bank interest rates are under great pressure from 5 factors including liquidity issues of the system; fierce competition with other investment channels. Three is exchange rate pressure; and four is pressure to ensure profits for the whole year. Finally, there is the difference between the capital mobilization rate and credit growth.
Looking to the interbank market, interbank interest rates increased sharply for all terms in November and December. In a recent outlook report by Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), this unit forecasts that the liquidity of the interbank market will continue to remain in a state of tension, interbank interest rates may fluctuate at a high level around 5.5 - 6.5% next month, however, VCBS expects the increase to be controlled thanks to the flexibility in regulating the SBV through open market operations.
VCBS forecasts that credit growth will continue to accelerate strongly, causing liquidity pressure in the banking system, in the context of exchange rate pressure still existing due to large import demand of enterprises at the end of the year. Therefore, VCBS continues to maintain the view that deposit interest rates in the NHTMCP group will increase in December. Thus, the possibility of a slight increase in lending interest rates in the following month cannot be ruled out.
According to the State Bank, credit growth is positive as of November 2025, reaching over VND 18.2 million billion, up 16.56% compared to the end of 2024. The lending interest rate level continues to be stable, with a downward trend. The liquidity of the domestic credit institution system (CIs) is guaranteed.
