“Black swans may actually come from elsewhere. Risks may stem from a less noticeable hidden corner, such as a sudden macroeconomic shock or a sudden policy shift” - Ms. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said. Black swans are just rare events but have a strong impact on the market.
Regarding major topics shaping the market in 2026, the nomination of a new Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED) in early January is a key event, when Mr. Jerome Powell's term will end in May.
The biggest but lowest-rated risk in 2026 is that the FED's excessive monetary easing compared to the economic situation, thereby causing inflation to return and disrupting the market, Mr. Lale Akoner - global market strategist of eToro - warned.
According to him, further interest rate cuts could lead to strong easing, pushing inflation up and forcing the FED to reverse policy in a disruptive way.
Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is preparing to issue a ruling on the legality of major emergency tax packages issued by President Donald Trump. In addition, the US midterm election will take place in November.
Geopolitics became even more prominent after the US arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Canada and Greenland (Denmark) - targets in President Donald Trump's statements - are closely monitoring developments in Venezuela.
2026 is also an important election year in many emerging economies, from Hungary to Brazil and Colombia, which may create a resistance for the market after 2025 to recover.
The stock markets of the US, Japan and Europe are expected to continue to rise in 2026, but it is difficult to repeat the hot increase of 2025. Up to 56% of respondents predict the market will correct in the coming months.
A sell-off of stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) may affect general psychology. The AI fever has pushed up valuations, nurturing expectations for huge spending on technology infrastructure. However, doubts about the efficiency of AI investment and the increasing debt of some businesses are gradually emerging.
Analysts predict the S&P 500 index will reach 7,490 points by the end of 2026, while the European STOXX 600 will reach 623 points, corresponding to an increase of more than 9% and 5% compared to the end of 2025.
According to Mr. Akoner, the market will be less dependent on the super-large-cap US stock group as the trend of cash flow rotation continues.
Entering 2026, central banks are on different trajectories, although in general they have all gone through a period of easing.
The FED has cut interest rates 3 times in 2025 and the market forecasts 2 more reductions before the end of 2026. The European Central Bank (ECB) is forecast to maintain interest rates unchanged, while Australia may raise interest rates and Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1% this year.
Forecasters agree on the possibility of the USD weakening this year. The USD index, which just experienced the worst year since 2017, is forecast to fall to 95.7 points by the end of the year, equivalent to a decrease of 2.5% compared to now.
The dominant position of the USD is still there, but it is no longer obvious," Mr. Akoner commented. The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen, bringing the USD/yen exchange rate to about 145, compared to around 157 currently. The British pound and euro are forecast to be generally stable.
Cryptocurrency is still a high-risk segment. The close correlation of cryptocurrencies with technology stocks is likely to cause volatility to continue to be large. However, the participation of large organizations, the development of ETF investment funds and the ability to integrate with the energy and AI markets may boost long-term demand.
