New engine for high growth

PGS.TS Ngô Trí Long - chuyên gia kinh tế |

The GDP target for the period 2026-2030 from 10%/year or more and GDP per capita to 2030 of about 8,500 USD mentioned in the Report on documents submitted to the 14th Party Congress is not just an ambitious figure, but a "commitment" about the speed of reform and the implementation capacity of the entire system.

Lao Dong Newspaper once raised a very correct issue: To realize high growth, Vietnam must innovate development thinking, remove bottlenecks and improve productivity, instead of waiting for short-term boosts. In the context of volatile world, supply chain competition and strong green protectionist trends, "shortcuts" are almost gone. Vietnam wants to grow faster, must grow with real capacity, transparent institutions, efficient market operation, stronger businesses, more skilled workers and strengthened social welfare.

Correctly transform the growth engine

Frankly assessing the average growth rate of 10%/year for 5 consecutive years is a very big challenge. But that challenge is not to "go backwards", but to force us to change the engine. For many years, Vietnam's growth has relied significantly on expanding investment capital, labor and cost advantages. When the "easy" space gradually shrinks, to increase faster, it is necessary to increase aggregate productivity (TFP) strongly. Simply put: For the same capital and an hour of labor, more value must be created. This only happens when the business environment reduces friction, compliance costs decrease, procedures are faster, policy risks are lower and resources are allocated to the most effective places.

The report on documents submitted to the 14th Party Congress condensed 8 contents, including very noteworthy keyword phrases.

Completing the development institution and socialist rule-of-law state, taking implementation as a measure. If we have to choose the most "expensive" question for the economy in the period 2026-2030, then that is this question. Because institutions are not just laws and decrees; institutions are how the economy operates: Are property rights protected, are contracts effectively enforced, are procedures predictable, are unofficial costs eliminated?

For workers, a transparent and well-implemented institution is not far-fetched: it determines whether the factory will expand production, whether the business will increase orders, whether wages will increase, whether insurance will be fully paid, whether labor disputes will be resolved fairly. In other words, "taking implementation as a measure" is how to bring growth to the right place: jobs and lives.

Establishing a new growth model: Knowledge economy, digital economy, green economy, circular economy. The new model is the answer to the question: How will Vietnam grow when it cannot rely on cheap resources and cheap labor forever? Knowledge economy requires improving the quality of education, vocational training, digital skills, foreign languages, labor discipline and management capacity. Digital economy requires data infrastructure, information security, digitized services and digital transformation capacity of businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Green - circular economy requires standards, energy-saving technology, emission management, green logistics and green finance. The important point is that this model will only become a growth engine when there is a clear market mechanism and standards.

The report also emphasized that science, technology, innovation and digital transformation: Central driving force of development. Putting science and technology at the center is an "unavoidable" choice if you want high growth. But to turn the policy into results, three very specific shifts are needed: From "buying technology" to "mastering technology" in enterprises; from "digital transformation according to projects" to "digital transformation according to operating procedures"; from "expanded incentives" to "ordering according to output" (products, patents applied, productivity, cost savings).

In particular, the report identifies the construction and rectification of the Party and the political system; personnel work is "key of key". With economics, this story is divided into one point: Who is responsible to the end? If "implementation is used as a measure", then it must be measured, assigned and rewarded. An economy that wants to accelerate does not only need vision; it needs a "not afraid of difficulties", daring to decide and daring to take responsibility in accordance with the law.

Speeding up with enforcement discipline, freeing private resources

From the goals and orientations stated in the Political Report, three major expectations can be set - also three "tests" of the 2026-2030 period.

Procedure reform must be "numbered", not stopping at slogans. People and businesses will feel reform when the processing time for investment, land, construction, tax, and customs dossiers is shortened; when procedures are less round-robin, less asking - giving; when a regulation is applied uniformly nationwide. This is a condition for social capital to flow into production instead of flowing into "waiting for procedures".

Infrastructure creates productivity - not just creating works. We are not short of projects, but what is needed is projects that create competitiveness: reduce logistics costs, increase electricity reliability, expand digital connectivity, and improve urban efficiency. When infrastructure truly pulls productivity, growth will be more real and less risky.

Growth goes hand in hand with the quality of life of workers. 10% growth will only be meaningful when it is transformed into: stable jobs, increased income, better housing for workers and social services, and more convenient access to health and education.

PGS.TS Ngô Trí Long - chuyên gia kinh tế
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