Forecast of banking group profits in the fourth quarter of 2024
Experts estimate that banking group profits will grow by 14.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Reports from SSI Research and MBS predict that some banks will achieve breakthrough growth, while large banks will maintain stable growth.
OCB is expected to see the strongest profit growth of up to 300% compared to the same period thanks to the low base from last year. TPBank and VPBank increased by 172% and 108% respectively, thanks to improved credit and reduced provisioning costs. In contrast, VIB, Sacombank, Eximbank, LPBank are forecast to see profit decline due to the high base compared to last year.
Factors affecting profits
Credit growth: Credit demand is expected to increase by 16.4% in 2025, creating momentum for banks to improve profits.
NIM (Net Interest Margin): Expected to decline slightly in Q4 but increase year-on-year.
Provision expenses: Higher than previous quarter but down from high base level last year.
Non-interest income: Not yet recovered significantly, especially in the fee segment.
SSI Research expects pre-tax profit of the banking industry to grow by 17.9% in 2025, with recovery from credit and interest rates. However, interest rate competition is still a factor to note.
