Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning unexpectedly recorded red in key growing areas after the secondary price increase session. The decrease ranged from 600 to 800 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.
Specifically, in Dak Lak province, the average purchase price is currently at 101,000 VND/kg, down 800 VND/kg. This is still one of the localities that keep prices stable around the threshold of 100,000 VND.
Similarly, in the old Dak Nong province, coffee prices also recorded a decrease of VND 800/kg, bringing the trading price to VND 101,200/kg, however, this is still the locality with the highest purchasing price in the country in today's session.
In Lam Dong province, where prices are often lower than the general level, the price of green coffee beans has decreased by 800 VND/kg, currently purchased by traders at 100.500 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, in Gia Lai, the slightly lower decrease is 600 VND/kg, closing at 100,700 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
At the end of the most recent trading session, the international coffee market witnessed a clear differentiation between the two exchanges London and New York. Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for delivery in January 2026 decreased by 15 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.35%, to 4,206 USD/ton. Subsequent delivery terms such as March 2026 and May 2026 also decreased by 31 USD and 27 USD respectively.
In contrast, green has returned to the New York Stock Exchange. Arabica coffee futures for December 2025 delivery increased sharply by 4.65 cents/lb (up 1.16%), to 405.45 cents/lb. The March 2026 delivery term also increased by 3.90 cents/lb, reaching 376.20 cents/lb.
This contrast comes from the separate basic elements of each type of seed. For Arabica, the increase was supported by Brazil's green coffee exports in November, down 27% compared to the same period last year, to 3.3 million bags, according to a report from the Brazilian Coffee Export Association (Cecafe).
In addition, dry weather conditions in Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region - are raising concerns about output. Somar Meteorologia reported that the rainfall here last week only reached 11 mm, equivalent to 17% of the historical average.
Meanwhile, Robusta is under pressure to reduce prices due to abundant supply from Vietnam. The Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) announced that Vietnam's coffee exports in November increased by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons.
In the first 11 months of the year, exports increased by 14.8% to 1.398 million tons. In addition, the European Parliament's approval of a further year of the EUDR has partly relieved concerns about a shortage of short-term supply to the EU market, adding to the downward pressure on Robusta.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Looking at the medium and long term, the supply and demand picture is having mixed signals. On the supply side, downward pressure is still present as Vietnam enters the peak harvest period. Vietnam's 2025/2026 crop output is forecast to increase by about 6% to 1.76 million tons, the highest level in the past 4 years.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also said that if the weather is favorable, the output can increase by 10%. In addition, Brazil's Conab crop forecasting agency has also raised its forecast for the country's total output in 2025 to 56.54 million bags.
However, the decline in coffee prices may be held back by low inventory factors. Data from ICE showed Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low in late November before recovering slightly, while Robusta inventories also hit an 11.5-month low.
In the US, purchases from Brazil fell sharply in the August-October period due to previous tariff problems, causing inventories in the world's largest consumer market to be tight.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee output in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to increase by 2.5% to a record of 178.68 million bags. However, with unpredictable weather developments in Brazil and global consumption demand remaining stable, the market is likely to continue to witness strong fluctuations.
In the short term, domestic coffee prices may continue to be subject to slight pressure to adjust according to the trend of world Robusta prices, but it is unlikely to decrease sharply due to the large demand for counterpart purchases by exporting enterprises.
