Domestic coffee prices
On November 15, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions continued to decline dramatically, losing an average of VND 2,600/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to only VND 110,300/kg. This is the third consecutive deep decline, pushing prices down to their lowest level in many weeks.
Specifically, in Gia Lai, the price decreased the most at VND 2,700/kg, down to VND 109,800/kg. Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old) both decreased by VND 2,500/kg, to VND 110,500/kg. Lam Dong also lost 2,300 VND/kg, to only 108,700 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market (transacted on November 14) continued to sink into red, marking the third consecutive day of price reduction.
Robusta ( London) fell sharply by 120 USD/ton (down 2.75%), down to 4,223 USD/ton (term 1/26).
Arabica (New York) also decreased by 1.90 US cents/lb (down 0.47%), closing at 399.80 US cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The three consecutive price crashes show that the market is completely overwhelmed by negative news about supply.
The main reason is still the hope that the US will soon lift the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. The US Treasury Secretary's announcement that there will be an "ight-to-ight announcement" in the next few days continues to promote sell-off activities. This pressure is further compounded by StoneX's gloomy forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 crop, which predicts a 29% increase in output.
Other price support factors were overwhelmed. The news of heavy rains in Brazil (160% of the average) has eased concerns about drought. The supply of Robusta from Vietnam is still very abundant (exports increased by 13.4% in 10 months and the crop is forecast to be bumper).
The only remaining price support is international inventories still at an extremely low level ( Arabica lowest in 1.75 years, Robusta lowest in 3.75 months), with US purchases from Brazil down 52% in the past 3 months. However, this news is not enough to stop the decline.
The short-term trend forecast is very negative. News about tariffs and forecasts of abundant supply have completely overwhelmed concerns about low inventories. The market may continue to explore new bottom.
