- How do you evaluate the proposals of enterprises participating in investing in the North-South high-speed railway project?
The private participation of a national key project is welcome, in the spirit of Resolution 68 of the Politburo. However, in addition to the spirit and enthusiasm, the most important thing for an unprecedented project of the country is the economic, financial and social feasibility to ensure the meaning of the backbone, helping to spread to dozens of industries related to the high -speed railway project.
- In a recent proposal, THACO invited other domestic corporations and enterprises to contribute capital. Is this a solution to share risks, sir?
With the super high -speed rail project, the contribution of the State, businesses and people is necessary, no discussion, it is important that the plan to gather actual and feasible forces. However, this invitation plan is somewhat superficial because this enterprise has not been able to meet and has no reputation and potential, both hard and soft to stand up to gather the strength of Vietnamese businesses to implement a century project. On the contrary, I am afraid that this option lacks true, reputable, capable and potential conductor.
If the project company is in the name of a project but mainly invites other units to contribute capital, dividing each segment, how can progress and quality be ensured? Who is responsible if some members withdraw or break contracts, even the agreement between companies is not simple and the price to pay is the progress and quality of the super project.
Don't forget that this is an extremely complex infrastructure project, with the possibility of losing for decades, requiring perseverance and a very strong financial foundation, and at the same time having the ability to coordinate techniques - technology - operations at the national level. How many domestic enterprises are willing to rush into a project that is known to be a loss, unless they determine a "pre-term loss, post-term profit" to develop the accompanying industry?
- Regarding time, THACO also committed to completing the route within 7 years. Do you believe that, with the current capacity of THACO?
I am not sure. However, if you look into the past, from the project of Dai Quang Minh (a subsidiary of Thaco), Thaco Thai Binh, to the HAGL Agrico project, ... many projects have been worn by capital, slow or unknown effectiveness. The reality of the commitment, though not completely, is also decided largely by the experience and the past experience. Even if Thaco has completed the project after 7 years, compared to the 5 -year commitment of another unit, the economy has lost 2 years of development opportunities.
- Is it reasonable to say that the 70-year period THACO would be more than the 99 years of other parties, sir?
I think this number is only symbolic, because when the deadline expires, businesses can still request an extension according to the law. The important thing is operational efficiency, financial risk level and the ability to develop accompanying industries.
"Self-arranging" tens of billions of USD is not feasible
- THACO proposes to borrow 80% of capital from domestic and foreign credit institutions, equivalent to more than 49 billion USD, the Government guarantees and supports all loan interest for 30 years and the collateral is the entire project? Is the above proposal reasonable, sir?
In essence, if the State guarantees a loan and pays interest to the enterprise, it is no different from the government that directly borrows and pays interest. Risks if any, the Government is still responsible. Not to mention the loan interest rate of the business is always higher than the loan interest rate of the State, so it will surely make the State's cost team.
More importantly, the feasibility of capital mobilization in the market. This enterprise is unlikely to have the capacity to borrow 49 billion USD even though it is guaranteed by the State.
- Regarding the ability to mobilize more than 12 billion USD in contributed capital that THACO said it will "arrange itself". Do you think this is feasible?
To be honest, that option is very difficult to implement. THACO said it will mobilize through issuing increased capital shares to THACO and its member corporations. However, we need to ask directly: What basis does THACO, with an equity of only about 2 billion USD, have to have for mobilizing 6 times more capital, up to more than 12 billion USD from the domestic market?
We are all aware of the endurance of the Vietnamese market. Looking at the largest companies in the market, no one is able to call for such capital in a short time, especially in the context of the current financial market.
Not to mention, issuing shares under the Enterprise Law and the Securities Law also takes at least 6-12 months. If THACO is talking about the goal of starting construction in 2026, is there still time to carry out legal procedures?
- In your opinion, how will this option be viewed?
I am not worried about anything because I am sure that such an impossible solution will never be accepted by the authorities, especially when related to a national treasure project such as the high-speed railway. This option contains too many risks and uncertainties, from the risk of assigning responsibility to a business that is not reputable enough, has not proven its management capacity in practice, lacks the ability to gather and coordinate resources to the risk of contract termination, delays, uneven quality, and even capital increase.
Moreover, this option also puts the entire national financial system under huge pressure and challenges, especially the risk of serious financial market imbalance and the risk of bankruptcy, both corporate and public debt, thereby negatively affecting economic growth.
- What do you think about the joint venture plan between VinSpeed and THACO?
Recently, I also asked Mr. Pham Nhat Vuong a similar question. He said: "This is a big project, very difficult, the progress is fast and it will definitely be a loss. I want to devote all my efforts to contributing to the country in a project with economic development value that is not for business and profit. VinSpeed was having a hard time alone. If a few more businesses joined, the discussion alone would take a lot of time. When no one is at risk, then they fight back.
The viewpoint is that different corporate governance and project management methods will hinder the success of joint ventures, so Mr. Vuong also clearly stated that if there are joint ventures, he will definitely not do it even though he is willing to support them mentally.
I think, if VinSpeed withdraws and THACO does not invite enough investors, where will this project go?
- Thank you!
According to VTC News (https://vtcnews.vn/chuyen-gia-lam-duong-sat-cao-toc-bac-nam-ma-moi-gop-von-chia-khuc- sao-dam-bao-tien-do-chat-luong-ar945547.html )
