Opening a downward cycle of gasoline prices
Since the gasoline price adjustment period on November 13, 2025 until now, the domestic gasoline market has recorded a series of adjustments following the main downward trend for most commodities. From a consumer's perspective, this development contributes to reducing fuel input costs.
However, in the opposite direction, petroleum businesses are facing a headache with many pressures, especially in responding promptly to price developments and maintaining business efficiency.
According to the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's basic price and retail price publicly listed by major enterprises, the adjustment period on November 13, 2025 began to show signs of decline and November 20, 2025 is considered the opening milestone for a downward cycle of gasoline prices.
From this point on, the base price of finished petroleum products on the Singapore market - the main reference for calculating domestic prices - is under significant pressure to decrease.
Accordingly, through 5 consecutive adjustment periods from November 13, 20, 11, 27, December 4 and December 11, 2025, retail prices of popular consumer goods such as gasoline and oil have fluctuated in a sharp decrease in the initial period, then continued to decrease in the main direction.
According to the price announcement of major enterprises such as Petrolimex, PV Oil, Saigon Petro and Mipeco, RON 95-III gasoline decreased by VND 490/liter, Diesel 0.05S decreased by VND 1,710/liter, Diesel 0.001S decreased by VND 1,840/liter.
Notably, the decrease is not concentrated in one adjustment period but takes place over many consecutive periods. This causes key businesses to continuously adjust selling prices lower than import prices of previous shipments, increasing financial risks in the context of increased capital costs and sales costs.
The development of gasoline prices in recent times has been affected by many international factors. In terms of geopolitics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, but the impact of price increases has decreased as the market gradually adapted to sanctions and adjusted energy flows.
The US-Venezuela relationship has shown signs of cooling down, opening up the possibility of adding crude oil supply to the global market.
Along with geopolitical factors, many large oil refineries in the world have completed the maintenance phase in the third and early fourth quarters of 2025, gradually increasing capacity again. Some new workshops in operation, especially in China and the Middle East, have added the amount of finished petroleum to the market.
The faster supply increases than consumption demand, causing refined product prices to be under pressure to decrease, causing the crack spread - the gap between crude oil prices and finished gasoline prices - to narrow significantly.
When crack is " suppressed", the profit margin of the petroleum business chain, from the refining to the distribution point, is affected. Brent oil price on December 16 decreased to 58.9 USD/barrel, near the lowest level in 5 years
Risk of falling prices eroding business profits
In the context of a prolonged low price level, domestic petroleum enterprises are facing a difficult problem. Many shipments are imported or purchased from domestic refineries at higher prices than the current period, but before they can be sold, retail prices have been adjusted down.
Faced with the risk of eroding profits due to falling prices, some businesses have chosen to narrow their market share. The supply of petroleum in the market tends to focus on large enterprises such as Petrolimex, PV Oil, Mipeco, Saigon Petro, ...
The fact that the distribution system "attracts" resources to major players shows the important role of these enterprises in maintaining the overall stability of the market, but also creates great, unusual pressure for these enterprises in ensuring business efficiency.
Until the end of Ukraine's peace talks and the OPEC regular meeting scheduled for January 6, 2026, oil prices may still be under pressure and therefore, the difficulties of key enterprises are unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
