Urbanization changes the disease model
In large cities, high population density and socialization make the risk of spreading infectious diseases always present, creating pressure on the health system. At the same time, urbanization also promotes sedentary lifestyles, unhealthy diets, increasing the risk of non-communicable diseases.
Worryingly, these diseases often progress silently. People with hypertension, diabetes, or metabolic disorders may not have obvious symptoms until complications such as myocardial infarction, stroke, or kidney failure appear.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Truong Tuyet Mai - Deputy Director of the National Institute of Nutrition - said that non-communicable diseases are currently the leading cause of death in the world. Each year, about 43 million people die from non-communicable diseases, accounting for more than 80% of the total global deaths; about 8 million cases are related to unreasonable diets.
4 main disease groups include cardiovascular disease, cancer, type 2 diabetes and chronic respiratory disease. Risk factors include unhealthy diet, smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity; along with overweight, obesity, high blood pressure, hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia.
According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Truong Tuyet Mai, nutrition is an effective intervention solution with many risk factors. A survey in 2020 showed that the rate of overweight and obesity increased in many age groups, in which children aged 5-19 increased from 8.5% to 19% in the period 2010-2020.
Vietnam also faces 3 nutritional burdens: malnutrition, overweight - obesity and micronutrient deficiency. Dysnutrition and stunting in children under 5 years old have decreased, but are still high in some areas, while overweight and obesity are increasing and micronutrient deficiency is still common in the at-risk group.
Population aging increases pressure
Population aging makes the "double burden" more apparent when the elderly often suffer from many underlying diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, musculoskeletal diseases, leading to long-term treatment and care needs.
The latest forecast from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam will end the golden population period in 2036, 3 years earlier than the 2019 forecast. From now until 2035, the 15-64 age group still accounts for about 67% of the population. By 2036, people aged 65 and over will reach 15%, marking Vietnam officially leaving the golden population period.
Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu - former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues, National Economics University - said that the golden population opportunity only appears once in the history of each country. Vietnam still has about 10 years to take advantage of this by improving labor quality, creating high-productivity jobs and investing in young people's health.
After 2036, Vietnam enters a period of rapid aging. The population aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 9.4 million people in 2024 to 20.5 million people in 2044 and 31.2 million people in 2074.
2034 will be the milestone when the number of elderly people exceeds the number of children, and at the same time Vietnam enters a period of aging population, 2 years earlier than previously predicted. The period 2034-2036 will be a "double" period, when Vietnam still has a golden population structure and officially aging.
By 2074, people aged 65 and over are expected to account for 27.3% of the population, equivalent to the aging rate of Japan today. Average life expectancy continues to increase from 74.7 years old in 2024, leading to greater pressure on the health and social security systems.
Dr. Hoang Tu Anh - Director of the Center for Health Initiatives and Population - assessed that the health system has a foundation but is only partially ready before the rate of aging. About 80% of the elderly have health management records, more than 69% are examined regularly and there are more than 100 hospitals nationwide with geriatrics departments. However, Vietnam still lacks continuous community care, management of multiple diseases, long-term care and cost-saving solutions for the elderly.
According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dac Phu, the health system has been prepared, but has not met the requirements when the population is aging rapidly. Vietnam is still lacking geriatrics personnel, long-term care facilities and needs to strongly shift from treatment to prevention and community health management.
Mr. Phu emphasized that it is necessary to promote vaccination, disease prevention, health communication, training long-term care personnel and promote the role of health stations in comprehensive health management. The goal is not only to help people live longer but also to live healthily, thereby reducing pressure on the health system.
