The latest storm and low pressure information on September 30 from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 8:00 a.m. on September 30, low pressure 09g formed, about 1,360 km east of Southeast Luzon, Philippines.
This low pressure is outside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) and is assessed by Philippine forecasters to have a moderate chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.
PAGASA weather forecaster Robert Badrina said that based on data and analysis, although the low pressure area has formed, no storms are expected to appear in the coming days.
He noted that there is only one weather system, the winter wind - the wind blowing from the Pacific Ocean, carrying moisture, warm weather - that is having a major impact on the weather in the Philippines.
Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Bulacan, Rizal and Quezon are expected to experience clouds, scattered showers, heavy rain and thunderstorms, increasing the likelihood of flash floods or landslides in these areas.
The Philippine State Weather Agency said that the remaining areas of the country will have cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms due to winter winds.
The new low pressure area near the East Sea that PAGASA is monitoring is also being identified by the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) as a low pressure area, named Invest 93W.
This low pressure in the Philippine Sea is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours at a moderate level.
Currently, the low pressure has maximum sustained winds of about 30-35 km/h. Environmental conditions are also favorable for the low pressure to strengthen, with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures (28-30 degrees Celsius).
Forecast models show that the intensity of the depression will gradually increase, with the path moving west-northwest over the next 2 days.
Over the weekend, a PAGASA official said that there will be 5-9 tropical storms in the remainder of this year's typhoon season.
PAGASA Deputy Director Marcelino Villafuerte II emphasized that it is expected that there will be 2-4 typhoons making landfall in the Philippines in October, 2-3 typhoons in November and 1-2 typhoons in December.
"So we expect five to nine more tropical storms before the end of the year," Villafuerte said.
So far, there have been 15 typhoons affecting the Philippines, including Typhoon Opong (ie Typhoon No. 10 in the Bualoi East Sea).
The storm caused devastation in Masbate, Mindoro and other areas of the Philippines before entering the East Sea and causing damage to central Vietnam.
"On average, the Philippines recorded 19 to 20 typhoons. If we add five to nine more to this year's hurricane season, we'll be average," Villafuerte said.
PAGASA weather experts point out that, based on previous data, in the last quarter of the year, typhoons typically hit areas in Visayas and Mindanao, Philippines.
