China could face a long-term drought from winter to spring in eastern and southern regions, as climate experts link current weather developments to a prolonged cold spell in the equatorial Pacific, also known as the La Nina phenomenon.
Experts say that although the possibility of a complete La Nina in this winter is not high, current La Nina conditions are still clearly affecting the rainfall pattern.
La Nina is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are below normal for a long time. According to China's National Climate Center, La Nina conditions have been forming since October.
Forecasters in China say the current La Nina is likely to last for another 2-3 months, before gradually moving to a neutral state around February or March 2026. This makes it unlikely to reach the five-month threshold to form an official La Nina event.
However, according to Zhang Daquan, Deputy Director of Climate Forecasting at the National Climate Center of China, prolonged La Nina conditions can still have a significant impact on China's climate, especially rainfall.
La Nina often creates an unusual cyclone circulation in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the East Sea. As a result, the northeast monsoon has taken the lead, weakening the transportation of moisture from tropical areas, which are the main source of moisture for China in the winter.
Therefore, rainfall in eastern and southern China may continue to be lower than the multi-year average, increasing the risk of droughts in the winter and spring of next year.
After the news that China has entered La Nina conditions spread strongly on social networks, many opinions were concerned that this winter would be colder than usual.
However, Zhang said that La Nina should not be simplified with a cold winter. China's average winter temperatures are forecast to be approximately equal to or slightly above the multi-year average, while rainfall tends to be lower than normal.
He also stressed that La Nina is just one of many factors that dominate China's autumn-winter climate. The artical sea ice and snow in the Asia- Europe region, along with natural fluctuations in atmospheric circulation systems, also play an important role.
According to the forecast, this winter in China may record strong temperature fluctuations, with a clear difference between cold and warm periods.
