The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last for another 1-2 months before giving way to a neutral state in the Pacific Ocean in the period from January to March 2026.
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said a 68% probability of La Nina lasting another 1-2 months.
Even if sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean return to a neutral ENSO state, La Nina could continue to affect the Northern Hemisphere in the early spring of 2026, the US Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly report.
La Nina is part of the ENSO ( El Nino) climate cycle, affecting sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
The phenomenon of La Nina causes sea water to be colder than average, increasing the risk of flooding and drought, thereby affecting agricultural production.
When ENSO is neutral, sea surface temperatures are stable around average, the weather is less volatile and crop yields can improve.
Sea surface temperatures could return to the neutral ENSO phase in January or early February, but the delay in atmospheric responses could cause La Nina-like conditions to continue into March, said Jason Nicholls, an international forecaster at AccuWeather.
Mr. Nicholls expressed concern about the situation of heavy rain in southern Brazil. He also said there was no risk of widespread drought in global agricultural regions in the coming months.
Mr. Donald Keeney - agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather - said that the Pacific Ocean is warming, with current temperatures "at the crossroads between neutral and weak La Nina".
Keeney forecasts more rain in southern Brazil and Argentina as La Nina weakens. He warned that the biggest immediate threat is droughts in the central and southern American plains that could affect the US hard-red rice crop in the spring.
Mr. Matthew Biggin, senior expert at BMI, a company Fitch Solutions, commented that a weak La Nina will only have a limited impact.
While local challenges may arise, we expect the impact to not be too big as La Nina is weak this year and will not last throughout the season, he said.
He also noted that soil moisture in Argentina's key agricultural region is at its best level in 5 years, somewhat reducing the risk of drought.
Last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced the forecast that a weak La Nina will continue to affect global weather in the next 3 months.
Although La Nina often causes the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to cool, many areas of the world may still be warmer than normal, increasing the risk of flooding and drought, directly affecting crop production, the World Meteorological Organization said.
The Japan Meteorological Agency on December 11 also informed that current conditions are still near La Nina, but this trend will weaken rapidly from the end of winter.
