The latest AP storm report said Hurricane Rafael passed west of Jamaica on Nov. 5 and was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it headed toward Cuba. The latest storm was located 170 kilometers (105 miles) east of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands on Nov. 5 after passing over Jamaica, where little damage was reported.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Hurricane Rafael was picking up speed with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and moving northwest at 15 mph.
Hurricane Rafael is forecast to “steadily strengthen to rapidly” over the next 24 hours. The storm is expected to approach or pass the Cayman Islands overnight on November 5, local time, and make landfall in western Cuba on November 6.
"Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands and strengthen before making landfall in Cuba," the hurricane bulletin said.
According to initial forecasts, Hurricane Rafael is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, possibly making landfall on the southern US Gulf Coast this weekend.
However, hurricane models from Tropical Tidbits, an Atlantic hurricane information and forecasting website, show that Rafael could turn east across southeastern Alabama and make landfall in Georgia. Some of Rafael's projected paths on these maps show the storm potentially sweeping across Florida.
The new hurricane forecast for Hurricane Rafael differs between European and U.S. models. European models predict the storm will track west through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, toward Louisiana and Mississippi.
Meanwhile, the US forecast model predicts that Hurricane Rafael will move eastward, through Alabama, Georgia and central and northern Florida.
Although Hurricane Rafael is forecast to weaken significantly as it heads toward the United States, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Hurricane Rafael will bring heavy rain to Florida and neighboring areas in the southern US over the weekend.
Describing the impact of Hurricane Rafael on the Caribbean, the US National Hurricane Center pointed out that heavy rains will impact areas of the Western Caribbean, with the heaviest rainfall occurring in Jamaica and parts of Cuba through mid-week.
Hurricane Rafael is expected to undergo rapid intensification, according to the US National Hurricane Center. Rapid intensification is an increase in sustained wind speeds of "at least 30 knots over a 24-hour period," equivalent to 35 mph (56 km/h).
Hurricane Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rare occurrence in November. Wind shear, dry air and cooler ocean temperatures will cause the storm to weaken slightly as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, meaning hurricanes are rare this month. Since 2013, eight named storms have appeared in November, with four making landfall and only two hitting the United States.
Of the 287 hurricanes since 1851 that have made landfall in the U.S. in NOAA's database, only four have made landfall in November. Of those, three have hit Florida and one has hit North Carolina.
