The latest storm news from AP said that Hurricane Rafael passed west of Jamaica on November 5 and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it heads towards Cuba. The latest storm was located 170 km east of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands on November 5 after passing Jamaica, where little damage was reported.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Rafael is accelerating with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h and moving northwest at 24 km/h.
Rafael is forecast to "strengthen steadily to rapidly" in the next 24 hours. The storm is expected to approach or pass the Cayman Islands overnight, local time, and make landfall in western Cuba on November 6.
"Rfael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands and strengthen before making landfall in Cuba," the hurricane bulletin said.
According to initial forecasts, Rafael is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, likely making landfall in the southern US Gulf Coast this weekend.
However, the hurricane forecast model from Tropical tidbits - an Atlantic hurricane information and forecasting website - shows that Rafael could turn eastward through southeastern Alabama and make landfall in Georgia. Some of Rafael's projected paths on these maps show the storm could sweep across Florida.
The new Rafael hurricane forecast model has differences between European and US models. European models predict the storm will move westward across the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, toward Louisiana and Mississippi.
Meanwhile, the US forecast model predicts that Hurricane Rafael will move eastward, through Alabama, Georgia and central and northern Florida.
Although Rafael is forecast to weaken significantly as it heads toward the US, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Rafael will bring heavy rain to Florida and neighboring areas in the southern US over the weekend.
Descripting the impact of Rafael on the Caribbean, the US National Hurricane Center said that heavy rain will affect areas of the Western Caribbean, with the heaviest rainfall occurring in Jamaica and some parts of Cuba through midweek.
Rafael is expected to undergo rapid intensification, according to the US National Hurricane Center. Rapid intensification is the increase in sustained wind speeds of "at least 30 knots within 24 hours", equivalent to 56 km/h.
Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rare occurrence for November. Wind shear, dry air and cooler ocean temperatures will weaken the storm slightly as it approaches the US Gulf Coast later this week.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, meaning hurricanes are rare this month. Since 2013, eight named storms have occurred in November, including four that made landfall and only two that made landfall in the United States.
Of the 287 storms that have made landfall since 1851 in the US mainland in NOAA's database, only four made landfall in November. Of those, three made landfall in Florida and one made landfall in North Carolina.
