After its strongest decline in more than a decade, world gold prices are expected to break out again. JPMorgan strategists believe that gold prices could increase by more than 100% in the next 3 years, as global investors see gold as a hedge against long-term bonds.
JPMorgan Bank still holds gold price forecast at 4,900 USD/ounce by the end of 2026, saying that demand from central banks and institutional investment funds will continue to be the main driver.
The rate of capital flows into gold ETFs shows that many long-term investors from pension funds, central banks to asset management institutions are increasing their gold holdings as part of a portfolio diversification strategy, said Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven of JPMorgan.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan's strategist team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has given a more bold forecast - gold prices could double in the next 3 years, as investors switch to using gold to hedge against stock risks.
They said that the recent price decline was mainly due to commodity exchange-traded funds finalizing future contracts, not due to retail investors selling off ETF gold. According to JPMorgan, gold futures have increased by 56% since the beginning of the year, and this adjustment is only temporary.
A new trend is forming: Instead of holding long-term bonds to hedge against traditional stock risks, investors are choosing gold. This is clearly reflected in global cash flow data - when the proportion of gold in the portfolio of non-bank investments increased to 2.6% of total assets, equivalent to about 6,600 billion USD.
If this trend continues, JPMorgan calculates that if investors shift an additional 2% of long-term bond value to gold, the gold ratio could reach 4.6%, meaning gold prices will increase by more than 110% - equivalent to about $6,000/ounce by 2028.
This forecast is reinforced by the context of global interest rates cooling down. Gold is still the most reliable investment of the year. As the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cutting cycle begins, we believe that gold prices have room to increase, said Ms. Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at JPMorgan.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Gregory Shearer, Head of Basic and Quarter metals Strategy, added: The market is reflecting concerns about inflation, risks to the Feds independence and the trend of preventing currency depreciation. All of which are positive catalysts for gold.
Spot gold prices have set records in 2025 several times, with the most recent peak reaching $4,381/ounce, up nearly 57% since the beginning of the year - towards the strongest year increase since 1979. JPMorgan predicts that the average gold price could reach 5,055 USD/ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, before heading towards the mark of 6,000 USD/ounce in 2028.
As of 6:47 a.m. on October 24, Vietnam time, the world gold price was trading around 4,117.18 USD/ounce, up 1.66% over the previous session.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading at 147.5 - 149.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is listed at 150.5 - 153.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
