Colorado State University hurricane forecasters have adjusted their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. This adjustment is due to the phenomenon of strong wind shear in the Caribbean being recorded in practice and in the forecast in the coming time.
Wind shear is a phenomenon of speed and direction change with altitude. High wind shear often disrupts the development of storm and tropical depression systems.
S strong wind shear in the Caribbean in June and July is typically associated with a weaker active hurricane season, says Dr. Phil Klotzbach in a forecast update from Colorado State University published on July 9.
As of this point in the 2025 hurricane season, the Atlantic region has recorded 3 storms, but none have reached hurricane level.
Of the 16 storms forecast for the entire season, 8 are expected to reach typhoon level, and 9 were previously forecast to reach typhoon level.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic remain above average, although not as high as last season's record. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state, meaning it is not a La Nina or El Nino weather type, with sea surface temperatures approaching normal.
Historically, the neutral weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean combined with warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic has typically created more favorable conditions for hurricane formation, said Klotzbach.
Based on the current forecast model, Colorado State University forecasters said there is a 48% chance of recording at least one hurricane making landfall in the US this year, higher than the historical average of 43%. Of which, the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall on the US East Coast is 25%, and in the Gulf of Mexico is 31%.
The forecast team gave a 53% probability of at least one Category 3 or stronger storm passing through the Caribbean this year, higher than the 47% average.
Even underlying storms can cause significant damage, forecasters note. A typical example is Typhoon Chantal, which made landfall in North Carolina last weekend. Despite being a low-level tropical storm, Chantal still caused severe flooding in the central part of the state, killing one person.
According to AccuWeather's latest storm forecast, experts are monitoring an area that could form a low pressure in the Atlantic basin. Accordingly, a low pressure or storm is likely to form along the southern Atlantic coast, especially the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from July 15 to 18.
The next name on the list of hurricane names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is Dexter. The average day for a first hurricane is August 11, and the first major hurricane (Class 3 or higher) typically forms around early September.
AccuWeather's hurricane forecasters, led by hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, predict 13 to 18 storms this year, with 7 to 10 of them strengthening into hurricanes and 3 to 5 of them likely to become hurricanes or super typhoons.
