La Nina is forecast to appear causing storms and heavy rain, with above-average rainfall across Southeast Asia in the coming months, Bloomberg reported.
Heavy rains from La Nina threaten to further disrupt agriculture, tourism and industrial output in the area that has been hit by a series of major storms this year.
Forecasters predict more rain from the Philippines to Vietnam until November, mostly due to La Nina. "La Nina is expected to occur from October to November 2024 onwards, which is one of the contributing factors to the possibility of higher than normal rainfall" in some countries in the region, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center said.
On October 14, Singapore issued a flood warning. Meanwhile, the Philippine weather agency forecasts that the country could see above-average rainfall through the end of the year and 160% above average in January. Vietnam is expected to see above-average rainfall, including in the northern part of the country. Central Vietnam may also record flooding until March next year.
According to Takahisa Nishikawa, head of forecasting at The Weather Company, Vietnam could also see more tropical storms than usual until April 2025. The storm is likely to "cause heavy rains with the risk of flooding, landslides and house collapse due to strong winds".
Heavy rains could affect recovery efforts in Vietnam after super typhoon Yagi devastated the country in September, causing damage of up to VND40 trillion (US$1.6 billion).
The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 60% chance of La Nina appearing later this year. La Nina is expected to be weaker and shorter than initially forecast. The phenomenon of La Nina pushes warm water towards Asia and Australia, the opposite of El Nino.
Warmer sea surface temperatures also contribute to the development of storm systems, the SCMP notes. Research by scientists in the US and Singapore shows that the warming climate is expected to increase the likelihood of forming and intensifying storms near the Southeast Asian coast.
Tropical cyclones will be stronger because the basic theory is clear: higher ocean temperatures, said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore. The warmer the oceans, the more energy there is for tropical cyclones to get bigger, bigger and bigger, and places like Taiwan (China) and Vietnam could see more super typhoons.
According to CNA, in early October, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center said that La Nina could last from October to November onwards, with most models predicting La Nina to affect early 2025. Higher than normal rainfall is forecast for much of southern Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 60% chance of La Nina forming in November and lasting from January to March next year. Dr. Dhrubajyoti Samanta - senior research fellow at the Earth Observatory of Singapore - noted that NOAA forecasts a weak La Nina in Southeast Asia. This means that there is a high chance that the weather in the area will not be too humid or more seriously worrying than a normal La Nina.
