La Nina is forecast to bring storms and heavy rain, with above-average rainfall across Southeast Asia in the coming months, Bloomberg reported.
Heavy rains caused by La Nina threaten to cause further disruption to agriculture, tourism and industrial output in a region already hit by a series of major storms this year.
Forecasters are predicting more rain from the Philippines to Vietnam through November, largely due to La Nina. "La Nina is predicted to occur from October to November 2024 onwards as one of the contributing factors to the possibility of higher than normal rainfall" in some countries in the region, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre said.
Singapore issued a flood warning on October 14. Meanwhile, the Philippine weather agency forecast that the country could see above-average rainfall until the end of the year and 160 percent above average in January. Vietnam is expected to see above-average rainfall, including in the northern part of the country. Central Vietnam could also see flooding until March next year.
Vietnam could also see more tropical storms than usual through April 2025, according to Takahisa Nishikawa, chief forecaster at The Weather Company. The storms are likely to “bring heavy rains with the risk of flooding, landslides and house collapses due to strong winds.”
Heavy rains could hamper recovery efforts in Vietnam after super typhoon Yagi devastated the country in September, causing damage of up to 40 trillion VND (1.6 billion USD).
The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 60% chance of La Nina forming later this year. La Nina is expected to be weaker and shorter than initially forecast. La Nina pushes warm water toward Asia and Australia, the opposite of El Nino.
Warmer sea surface temperatures are also contributing to the development of storm systems, the SCMP noted. Research by scientists in the US and Singapore found that climate warming is expected to increase the likelihood of storms forming and intensifying near the coast of Southeast Asia.
“Tropical cyclones will get stronger because the basic theory is clear: higher ocean temperatures. The warmer the oceans, the more energy there is for tropical cyclones to get bigger and bigger and bigger,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, who was involved in the study. Places like Taiwan and Vietnam are likely to see more super typhoons.
According to CNA, in early October, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center said that La Nina is likely to last from October to November onwards, with most models predicting La Nina to affect early 2025. Higher than normal rainfall is forecast to occur in much of southern Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 60% chance of La Nina forming in November and lasting from January to March next year. Dr. Dhrubajyoti Samanta, a senior research fellow at the Earth Observatory of Singapore, noted that NOAA is forecasting a weak La Nina in Southeast Asia. This means that it is “highly likely” that the region’s weather will not be as wet or as seriously worrying as a typical La Nina.
