The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on April 21 issued an El Nino warning, with the probability of this weather phenomenon forming in the period from June to August reaching 79%.
According to regulations, PAGASA will raise the El Nino warning level when the forecast probability reaches 70% or more within 2-3 months. El Nino is often associated with lower than normal rainfall.
Most climate models, combined with expert assessments, show that there is a 79% chance that El Nino will appear in June-July-August 2026 and is likely to last until early 2027" - PAGASA's bulletin emphasized.
With this development, PAGASA's ENSO warning system has been upgraded to El Nino Alert, PAGASA noted.
The Philippine weather agency said that during El Nino, the possibility of more drought-prone conditions will increase, which may cause negative impacts such as droughts and prolonged droughts in some areas.
However, in the western region of the Philippines, rainfall may be higher than normal during the southwest monsoon season.
PAGASA forecasts that El Nino conditions from moderate to strong are likely to occur in the period of September-November.
However, this agency does not rule out the possibility of strong to very strong El Nino appearing in the periods of October-November-December or December 11 to January of the following year.
Ms. Ana Liza Solis - Head of Climate Monitoring and Forecasting Department of PAGASA - said: "This warning means that early action and early preparation are needed, because there are potential impacts that may occur even when El Nino has not officially formed.
Currently, ENSO's neutral conditions are still dominant in the Philippines.
