The Iranian war is showing a familiar rule of the Middle East: "Limited" campaigns are very likely to turn into prolonged and widespread conflict.
Initially, the air strike campaign by the US and Israel against Iran was seen as a high-intensity but short-term blow. However, as the attacks escalated, the war began to go beyond its initial scope and dragged more countries in the Middle East into a spiral of tension.
At the same time, the crisis is shaking a decades-old assumption that the US can ensure absolute security for its Gulf Arab allies.
This forces the Gulf countries to rethink their security strategies. They do not cut ties with the US, but are increasingly seeking to diversify diplomatic and security channels to reduce risks in future crises.
In that context, the intermediary role of Russia and President Vladimir Putin is attracting attention.
Earlier this week, Mr. Putin had a series of phone calls with leaders of Gulf countries, including UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
According to the Kremlin, Russia is ready to use strategic relations with Iran to help reduce tensions and convey concerns of Arab countries to Tehran, especially regarding attacks targeting oil and gas infrastructure.
Moscow's position is quite special. Russia has a strategic partnership with Iran but at the same time maintains stable working relations with Gulf countries.
In crisis diplomacy, this is the core element of the intermediary role: conveying the message, clarifying the "red line" and reducing the risk of misunderstandings that could escalate the war.
For example, in a phone call with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Mr. Putin is said to have received a message that Abu Dhabi does not allow its territory to be used to attack Iran.
Russia believes that the current priority is to prevent the conflict from spreading throughout the Gulf region, because a large-scale war here would have disastrous consequences for the global economy.
In an exchange with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Putin also warned of the risk of "disastrous consequences" if the war continues to escalate.
In fact, the Middle East is not lacking in weapons. What the region lacks most at this time is diplomatic bridges that are reliable enough for the parties to convey messages and reduce tensions.
With widespread regional ties, Russia is trying to play that bridge role. If Moscow can help reduce attacks on the Gulf energy infrastructure, they can not only prevent war from spreading but also help avoid a global energy shock.
