Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market continued to increase with an adjustment of 800 - 1,400 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
Dak Lak, Gia Lai: 133,300 VND/kg (+800 VND/kg)
Lam Dong: 132,200 VND/kg (+1,400 VND/kg)
Dak Nong: 133,500 VND/kg (+1,000 VND/kg)
This is the second consecutive increase after many sessions of downward adjustment, reflecting the vibrant developments of the market. Compared to the beginning of the month, domestic coffee prices have increased by over VND5,000/kg, pushing prices closer to a historical peak.
World coffee prices
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee recorded a significant increase:
March 2025 term: 5,756 USD/ton (+18 USD)
May 2025 term: 5,746 USD/ton (+25 USD)
July 2025 term: 5,701 USD/ton (+23 USD)
Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange saw mixed movements as Arabica prices fluctuated strongly:
March 2025 term: 417.90 cents/lb (1,5 cents)
May 2025 term: 411.90 cents/lb (+6.65 cents)
July 2025 term: 397.30 cents/lb (+7.00 cents)
The contrast in the New York market shows that investors are considering supply and demand factors, while the Robusta market still maintains good buying momentum.
Market analysis
Coffee prices are in a strong recovery trend after a recent downward adjustment. Some key factors affecting this price increase include:
Limited supply: Coffee exports from Brazil and Vietnam continue to decline due to the impact of weather and low harvests.
Stable demand: Roasters and investment funds continue to gather goods, pushing up coffee prices.
Low inventory: The amount of goods stored at ICE warehouses has dropped to its lowest level in many months, putting pressure on supply.
Exchange rate impact: The stronger USD puts pressure on commodity prices in general but cannot stop coffee's increase due to strong demand.
Coffee price trend forecast
Experts say coffee prices may continue to increase in the short term, especially when the market is entering the peak period of consumer demand. However, in the long term, if Brazil enters the 2025/2026 bumper crop as forecast, coffee prices may be under pressure to adjust.
With the current increase, domestic coffee prices are likely to soon approach VND135,000/kg - a record level set in April 2024. Investors and farmers should closely monitor market developments to make appropriate decisions.
