Increasing to 2.53 million VND is mainly to compensate for price slippage
According to the draft Decree adjusting the base salary and bonus regime for cadres, civil servants, public employees (CBCCVC) and armed forces drafted by the Ministry of Home Affairs, the base salary is expected to be increased to 2.53 million VND/month from July 1, 2026.
However, many ministries, branches and localities such as: the Ministry of Education and Training, Lai Chau province, Ca Mau, Tay Ninh... proposed to increase higher than this level.
When discussing the socio-economic situation in the National Assembly, delegate Thach Phuoc Binh (Vinh Long Delegation) proposed that the base salary should be increased to about 2.65 - 2.7 million VND/month, equivalent to an increase of 13 - 15% compared to the current level.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Van Trung - Department of Public Management, University of Economics and Law (Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City) - said that the proposal to increase by more than 2.53 million VND stems from the fact that the current adjustment level is still limited.
According to him, the level of 2.53 million VND/month is only equivalent to an increase of about 8%, mainly for inflation compensation, not ensuring the actual life of officials, civil servants and public employees. At the same time, this increase is not commensurate with market fluctuations and does not create motivation for work.
Therefore, some proposals raise it to about 2.65 - 2.7 million VND/month to substantially improve income and narrow the gap with the business sector.
However, according to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Van Trung, raising the base salary is not simple due to the specificity of the expenditure spreading throughout the system. When the base salary increases, it will lead to increased salaries, allowances, insurance, pensions... causing the budget to have to spend many times over.
In the context of large recurrent expenditures, if it is increased to 2.65 - 2.7 million VND (equivalent to an increase of 13-15%), it may lead to the risk of budget imbalance, increasing public debt pressure or forcing other expenditures to be cut.
He also noted that salary reform must be linked to financial capacity. Meanwhile, sources that create room such as spending savings, streamlining staff, and increasing budget revenue are not yet truly sustainable and even across localities.
If the increase is too high but there is a lack of maintenance resources, it may be necessary to postpone or stop reform afterwards, causing policy instability and affecting the trust of salary earners.
However, the expert believes that the increase to 2.65 - 2.7 million VND is still within the "can be considered" threshold, if the economy grows well, budget revenue increases, and staff streamlining is effective. At that time, income may increase by about 200,000 - 400,000 VND/month, contributing to improving living standards and creating social efficiency.
According to him, the current 2.53 million VND plan can be considered a neutral solution, prioritizing budget stabilization, and a higher increase needs to have an appropriate roadmap.
Wage increases must go hand in hand with inflation control
From a macroeconomic perspective, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, senior lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics (National Economics University), emphasized that the adjustment of the base salary needs to be based on actual economic fluctuations, especially inflation.
The important thing is not how much nominal income increases, but how much real income remains after deducting inflation. If the increase is low, real income is difficult to improve" - Mr. Lang stated his point of view.
From there, he believes that the level of about 2.7 million VND/month is closer to reality. Even if the consumer price index continues to increase, it is necessary to calculate higher adjustments to ensure the lives of salaried people.
However, Mr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also warned of the risk of the "wage - price" spiral. If wages increase but prices increase faster, workers will not benefit substantially.
Therefore, for the wage policy to be effective, it is necessary to synchronize macroeconomic management solutions, in which the focus is on controlling inflation and stabilizing prices of essential commodities such as gasoline, oil, electricity, water, food, and foodstuffs.
