Vietnam's economy is strong enough to cope with external shocks
Speaking at the plenary session within the framework of the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, with the prospect of 2026 (VEPF) with the theme "Vietnam's economy develops rapidly, sustainably, and transforms greenly in the digital age", Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that "Vietnam's economy is strong enough to withstand external shocks".
This has been proven through the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, as well as war, conflict, and disruption of the global supply chain.
According to the Prime Minister, the tightening monetary policies of many countries in recent years have put great pressure on the management of domestic monetary policy, this is the most difficult field. However, Vietnam has overcome this challenging period, ensuring currency value, controlling inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
In addition, the increasing trend of trade protection and complicated tariff policies have caused the global market to narrow, growth to decrease while inflation has increased, creating "the wind back" for many economies. The Prime Minister affirmed that Vietnam has overcome these impacts, thereby proving that its resilience is increasingly strengthened.
In the context of many difficulties, economic growth is still maintained, inflation is low, and major balances of the economy are guaranteed. Public debt, foreign debt and budget deficit are all under control, creating a foundation for long-term stability and development.
The Prime Minister stated that entering 2026, difficulties and challenges are still more than opportunities and advantages. The world situation continues to develop complicatedly with conflict, war and new and unpredictable methods of impact. The global and regional context can be generalized with characteristics such as Polar politics, separated economy, disjointed institutions and differentiated development.
Clearly identify challenges to seize breakthrough opportunities
For Vietnam, after nearly 40 years of innovation and integration, the foundation, potential, position and international prestige of the country have been enhanced, creating an important foundation to enter a new era of development. The Prime Minister affirmed that Vietnam clearly recognizes intertwined opportunities and challenges, in which challenges still dominate, but also opens up many opportunities for breakthrough.
The Prime Minister frankly pointed out some internal limitations. The large openness of the economy, about 1.5-1.8 times GDP, makes Vietnam vulnerable to external fluctuations. Growth quality is still limited, still relying heavily on cheap labor, resources and capital, while investment efficiency is not high.
Science - technology and innovation have not really become the main driving force, and more time is needed to promote their leading role. Institutions and policies still have bottlenecks, requiring continued improvement.
In addition, Vietnam is one of the countries heavily affected by climate change and natural disasters. In 2025 alone, natural disasters caused economic losses of over VND100,000 billion, with more than 400 people dead and missing.
From practical development, the Prime Minister generalized Vietnam's journey up through three pillars. Agriculture, farmers and rural areas are the foundation to help the country escape poverty and complete the Millennium Goals about 10 years earlier than other countries.
industrialization, urbanization and FDI attraction help Vietnam achieve a high average income. To become a developed country with high income, Vietnam must rely on science - technology, innovation, digital transformation and green transformation.
On that basis, green transformation and digital transformation, or dual transformation, are identified as objective requirements, strategic choices and investment priority orientations. The Prime Minister emphasized that the development goal is not to be exchanged for social justice, social security and the environment to pursue growth alone.
Strategic breakthrough for long-term growth
Regarding orientation and solutions, Vietnam will persistently maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, ensure major balances, and strive for high growth, towards double-digit growth. Monetary policy is closely managed in coordination with fiscal policy and other policies.
Three strategic breakthroughs in institutions, human resources and infrastructure continue to be promoted, with the spirit of open institutions, smooth infrastructure, reducing compliance costs and improving national competitiveness. Along with that is to renew traditional growth drivers, promote new growth drivers associated with the digital economy, green economy, circular economy and new economic models.
In the strategic infrastructure development orientation, the Prime Minister emphasized that infrastructure investment thinking must not only stop at pure transportation but must be associated with science - technology, innovation and new development space of the economy.
"The current new development space is not only on the ground, but on the digital space, on the network, associated with regional linkages, regional linkages, with recycling, reuse and especially data exploitation from infrastructure. In addition, it is necessary to "go deep into the ground" as many countries in the world have done, develop metro lines, power lines, water supply, drainage, wastewater treatment, especially underground traffic and underground spaces... If these directions are well exploited, there will be a lot of room," the Prime Minister commented.
With the double-digit growth target, the Prime Minister emphasized the need to develop new driving forces with a fundamental innovative mindset, from approaches to implementation methods. It is necessary to diversify forms of resource mobilization, enhance the companionship between the State and enterprises, between entities in the economy; link development with economic restructuring and growth model innovation.
With the spirit of Party leadership, Government unification in action, National Assembly accompanyance, people's support, and international support, we only discuss work, not retreat. The goal of rapid and sustainable growth, double-digit growth of Vietnam is to have a foundation and feasibility, not a formal or subjective number" - the Prime Minister affirmed.
